Re: Oversold and Overbought Time

[MLRobb@xxxx]

Dimitris,

Here is the address for back issues of conference tapes, and printed 
material; Tim Slater is the director.

Telerate Seminars, 701 Poydras, Suite 3900, New Orleans, LA 70139-3901
FAX 504-592-4553 Phone 800-535-7990. Ask about RSI presented by 
Andrew Cardwell.

M.R.





--- In amibroker@xxxx, MLRobb@xxxx wrote:
> Dimitris,
> 
> Here is a closer url: 
> 
> http://members.aol.com/stratagem1/infoonco.htm
> 
> 
> 
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > Dear MLRobb,
> > Thank you for your reply.
> > You missed the reference of Mr Cardwell work. Unfortunately I am 
> not 
> > informed. If it is available, please forward.
> > 
> > Dimitris Tsokakis 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxx, MLRobb@xxxx wrote:
> > > Dimitris:
> > > 
> > > You have probably a good idea. There was a body of work begun 
by 
> > > Cardwell, which observed RSI 14 tending to a 40-80 bull-band, 
> > > or a 20-60 bear-band: 
> > > 
> > > He introduced (I believe) the predictive concept of positive 
and 
> > > negative reversals (being inverted divergences of RSI v. Price 
> > > pivots); It had some beneficial predictive results concerning 
> > > subsequent peak and trough price.
> > > 
> > > However, as you indicate, these ranges are not transferable 
from 
> > one 
> > > stock to another, necessarily, or from an index to member 
stocks, 
> > etc.
> > > 
> > > Rather than manually adjust the RSI value, in attempt to fit 
> price 
> > > action into one of the above ranges, you seem to be striving 
for 
> a 
> > > more specific number, which should have good results.
> > > 
> > > M.R.
> > > 
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
wrote:
> > > > Oversold and overbought levels are usually selected by 
> experience 
> > > and may
> > > > be not satisfactory for a certain Market.
> > > > We can change levels in order to give a more reliable 
> description 
> > > of the Market.
> > > > 
> > > > 1. When we select 30, 70 , i.e. equal distance from 0, 100, 
we 
> > have 
> > > not any reason
> > > > to do it. Perhaps 24, 70 for example would be more realistic.
> > > > 
> > > > 2. I have the following idea: 
> > > > I will examine the oversold time for each stock, I will take 
> its 
> > > average and so I will
> > > > define the "mean oversold time (MOT)" for the Market.
> > > > This will be done for an oversold level which gives MOT >5% 
of 
> > > total days, else oversold is meaningless.
> > > > 
> > > > 3. Then I will search for a certain overbought level which 
> gives 
> > > the same "mean
> > > > overbought time". I consider this more fair for the Market, 
> > whereas 
> > > 30, 70 or 20, 80
> > > > sounds abritary.
> > > > In other words, I ask levels which share the time equally for 
> > > oversold and overbought
> > > > phases.
> > > > 
> > > > Any opinion on this ?
> > > > (The thought behind the curtain is that buyers and sellers 
wait 
> > > nearly the same 
> > > > time interval, until they change the trend.)
> > > > (formulas are almost prepared, I want to discuss the basic 
> > thought).
> > > > 
> > > > Best regards
> > > > Dimitris Tsokakis