Re: Oversold and Overbought Time

[MLRobb@xxxx]

Dimitris,

Here is a closer url: 

http://members.aol.com/stratagem1/infoonco.htm




--- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> Dear MLRobb,
> Thank you for your reply.
> You missed the reference of Mr Cardwell work. Unfortunately I am 
not 
> informed. If it is available, please forward.
> 
> Dimitris Tsokakis 
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, MLRobb@xxxx wrote:
> > Dimitris:
> > 
> > You have probably a good idea. There was a body of work begun by 
> > Cardwell, which observed RSI 14 tending to a 40-80 bull-band, 
> > or a 20-60 bear-band: 
> > 
> > He introduced (I believe) the predictive concept of positive and 
> > negative reversals (being inverted divergences of RSI v. Price 
> > pivots); It had some beneficial predictive results concerning 
> > subsequent peak and trough price.
> > 
> > However, as you indicate, these ranges are not transferable from 
> one 
> > stock to another, necessarily, or from an index to member stocks, 
> etc.
> > 
> > Rather than manually adjust the RSI value, in attempt to fit 
price 
> > action into one of the above ranges, you seem to be striving for 
a 
> > more specific number, which should have good results.
> > 
> > M.R.
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Oversold and overbought levels are usually selected by 
experience 
> > and may
> > > be not satisfactory for a certain Market.
> > > We can change levels in order to give a more reliable 
description 
> > of the Market.
> > > 
> > > 1. When we select 30, 70 , i.e. equal distance from 0, 100, we 
> have 
> > not any reason
> > > to do it. Perhaps 24, 70 for example would be more realistic.
> > > 
> > > 2. I have the following idea: 
> > > I will examine the oversold time for each stock, I will take 
its 
> > average and so I will
> > > define the "mean oversold time (MOT)" for the Market.
> > > This will be done for an oversold level which gives MOT >5% of 
> > total days, else oversold is meaningless.
> > > 
> > > 3. Then I will search for a certain overbought level which 
gives 
> > the same "mean
> > > overbought time". I consider this more fair for the Market, 
> whereas 
> > 30, 70 or 20, 80
> > > sounds abritary.
> > > In other words, I ask levels which share the time equally for 
> > oversold and overbought
> > > phases.
> > > 
> > > Any opinion on this ?
> > > (The thought behind the curtain is that buyers and sellers wait 
> > nearly the same 
> > > time interval, until they change the trend.)
> > > (formulas are almost prepared, I want to discuss the basic 
> thought).
> > > 
> > > Best regards
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis