Here are my thoughts on this reflected with the
SPY. Charts Included
02-21-09
Let us take a look at this ETF and get
a little perspective of where we are on the three major time
frames. I haven?t posted in a while so bear with
me.
The SPY closed Friday at
77.42. There is currently downside pressure being applied
to this chart. It tells a story that seems to be
different from some of the other short term charts. Here
we are dealing with the longer cycles. Price just
tapped the entry price for the move higher and started down to retrace and
tests the current November low. With all the
downside pressure being applied for the past two months price has been
unable to take out the low or hit the entry price for another major move
down. It should be noted that the lower time frame
charts have to turn positive before the downside pressure on this chart can
be reversed, but until the entry price for the move down is hit there is an
up move in progress fighting downside pressure.
The Weekly chart also has downside
pressure being applied to it. It has temporary
support at the second price objective for the move down with a target price
of 68.51. For price to start its next move higher on this
chart it would have to go through 674.54. The first price
objective for this move higher would be 93.34.
On the daily chart I have laid out 3
different cycles working at this time. The short down
cycle has found temporary support at the second price objective at 77.37 and
the target price for this cycle move down would be 73.74.
The next longer cycle down has a price objective of at 74.52 and this
should offer greater support for price. For price to
start a move higher on this time frame it would had to go to
81. That is based off of the current low of
75.77. The pressure has just crossed over and is
beginning to apply upside pressure to price.
The conclusion. If
you were short you should have covered on Friday and then wait for the next
move up or down.
Once again, just one man's
opinion
Ira
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2009 8:29
AM
Subject: [TimeandCycles] Re: Major
Bear Market Rally
exactly how does the wave structure especially point to a
very
powerful rally? and what does very powerful mean
exactly?
--- In TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com,
cauchy772000 <no_reply@xx.>
wrote:
>
> On Feb 9
I called for a top and start of a new major leg down.
>
> On
the 17th I closed out those short positions at a nice profit due
>
to a winning stop being activated. IE the market decline was taking
> on characteristics inconsistent with a new major leg down and I
was
> not going to sit by and let profits turn to losses.
>
> The DOW closed on Friday some 150 points lower than the low of
Feb
> 17 the NDX only some 10 points lower.
>
> My
work says we are now in the process of making or have made a
bear
> market intermediate low and should have a very powerful rally.
Wave
> structure especially points to that.
>
> AS
anecdotal evidence when George Soros goes on the TV and the
media
> circuit proclaiming something -- as that there is no bottom in
sight
> for stocks at the moment -- it's been a very profitable
counter
> trade. His last such public forecast was oil to go to 300
when it
was
> at 145. I guess he can claim he was right and
just had an extra
zero
> and meant 30 not
300.
>