[RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] Re: Major Bear Market Rally

["Ira" <mrira@xxxxxxxxx>]

Here are my thoughts on this reflected with the SPY.  Charts Included

 

SPY

02-21-09

 

Let us take a look at this ETF and get a little perspective of where we are on the three major time frames.   I haven?t posted in a while so bear with me.

 

The SPY closed Friday at 77.42.  There is currently downside pressure being applied to this chart.  It tells a story that seems to be different from some of the other short term charts.  Here we are dealing with the longer cycles.   Price just tapped the entry price for the move higher and started down to retrace and tests the current November low.   With all the downside pressure being applied for the past two months price has been unable to take out the low or hit the entry price for another major move down.   It should be noted that the lower time frame charts have to turn positive before the downside pressure on this chart can be reversed, but until the entry price for the move down is hit there is an up move in progress fighting downside pressure.

 

 

The Weekly chart also has downside pressure being applied to it.   It has temporary support at the second price objective for the move down with a target price of 68.51.  For price to start its next move higher on this chart it would have to go through 674.54.  The first price objective for this move higher would be 93.34. 

 

On the daily chart I have laid out 3 different cycles working at this time.  The short down cycle has found temporary support at the second price objective at 77.37 and the target price for this cycle move down would be 73.74.  The next longer cycle down has a price objective of at 74.52 and this should offer greater support for price.  For price to start a move higher on this time frame it would had to go to 81.   That is based off of the current low of 75.77.  The pressure has just crossed over and is beginning to apply upside pressure to price.  

The conclusion.  If you were short you should have covered on Friday and then wait for the next move up or down. 

Once again, just one man's opinion

 

Ira

 

----- Original Message -----

From: spfdmn

To: TimeandCycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2009 8:29 AM

Subject: [TimeandCycles] Re: Major Bear Market Rally

exactly how does the wave structure especially point to a very
powerful rally? and what does very powerful mean exactly?

--- In TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com, cauchy772000 <no_reply@xx.>
wrote:
>
> On Feb 9 I called for a top and start of a new major leg down.
>
> On the 17th I closed out those short positions at a nice profit due
> to a winning stop being activated. IE the market decline was taking
> on characteristics inconsistent with a new major leg down and I was
> not going to sit by and let profits turn to losses.
>
> The DOW closed on Friday some 150 points lower than the low of Feb
> 17 the NDX only some 10 points lower.
>
> My work says we are now in the process of making or have made a
bear
> market intermediate low and should have a very powerful rally. Wave
> structure especially points to that.
>
> AS anecdotal evidence when George Soros goes on the TV and the
media
> circuit proclaiming something -- as that there is no bottom in
sight
> for stocks at the moment -- it's been a very profitable counter
> trade. His last such public forecast was oil to go to 300 when it
was
> at 145. I guess he can claim he was right and just had an extra
zero
> and meant 30 not 300.
>

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