Here are my thoughts on this reflected with the
SPY. Charts Included
02-21-09
Let us take a look at this ETF and get a
little perspective of where we are on the three major time
frames. I haven?t posted in a while so bear with me.
The SPY closed Friday at
77.42. There is currently downside pressure being applied
to this chart. It tells a story that seems to be different
from some of the other short term charts. Here we are
dealing with the longer cycles. Price just tapped the
entry price for the move higher and started down to retrace and tests the
current November low. With all the downside pressure
being applied for the past two months price has been unable to take out the
low or hit the entry price for another major move down.
It should be noted that the lower time frame charts have to turn
positive before the downside pressure on this chart can be reversed, but until
the entry price for the move down is hit there is an up move in progress
fighting downside pressure.
The Weekly chart also has downside
pressure being applied to it. It has temporary
support at the second price objective for the move down with a target price of
68.51. For price to start its next move higher on this
chart it would have to go through 674.54. The first price
objective for this move higher would be 93.34.
On the daily chart I have laid out 3
different cycles working at this time. The short down cycle
has found temporary support at the second price objective at 77.37 and the
target price for this cycle move down would be 73.74. The
next longer cycle down has a price objective of at 74.52 and this should offer
greater support for price. For price to start a move higher
on this time frame it would had to go to 81. That is
based off of the current low of 75.77. The pressure has
just crossed over and is beginning to apply upside pressure to
price.
The conclusion. If
you were short you should have covered on Friday and then wait for the next
move up or down.
Once again, just one man's
opinion
Ira
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, February 22, 2009 8:29
AM
Subject: [TimeandCycles] Re: Major Bear
Market Rally
exactly how does the wave structure especially point to a
very
powerful rally? and what does very powerful mean exactly?
---
In TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com,
cauchy772000 <no_reply@xx.>
wrote:
>
> On Feb 9 I
called for a top and start of a new major leg down.
>
> On the
17th I closed out those short positions at a nice profit due
> to a
winning stop being activated. IE the market decline was taking
> on
characteristics inconsistent with a new major leg down and I was
>
not going to sit by and let profits turn to losses.
>
> The DOW
closed on Friday some 150 points lower than the low of Feb
> 17 the
NDX only some 10 points lower.
>
> My work says we are now in
the process of making or have made a
bear
> market intermediate
low and should have a very powerful rally. Wave
> structure
especially points to that.
>
> AS anecdotal evidence when
George Soros goes on the TV and the
media
> circuit proclaiming
something -- as that there is no bottom in
sight
> for stocks at
the moment -- it's been a very profitable counter
> trade. His last
such public forecast was oil to go to 300 when it
was
> at 145. I
guess he can claim he was right and just had an extra
zero
> and
meant 30 not
300.
>
