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Wow, it’s a window that extends from the date of the full
moon preceding a solar eclipse to the next full moon after the solar
eclipse. Not really, I can seldom get the algorithm straight in my
mind. Steven Puetz discovered that all crashes (movements greater than a
certain %) occurred within his defined window. I think that 8 out of 8
historic crashes occurred within the window. Elliades and Carolan have
refined Puetz’ work so please do refer to their careful definitions.
But there are two windows every year. Obviously, two crashes don’t
occur every year. So the rule is that IF a crash occurs, it won’t
occur OUTSIDE the window (statistically that is). Last year I was
following it so closely that on August 16 the window opened and I was convinced
there would thereafter (sometime) be a crash. I was so obsessed
that I told my doubles partner and two other golf buddies a crash was going to
occur on the practice tee of a tournament (exactly August 16). Well, a
crash did not occur that Monday August 18. However, a crash cycle
obviously began. I just went back to my Outllok Calendar notes because I’d
followed the window last year and I had made notes of my research regarding the
Puetz window definition. I believe the following are excerpts according
to articles available on the Web that are authored by Peter Eliades and Chris
Carolan (separately):
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses
and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion
on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market
timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He
emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses
cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general
and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to
be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor
psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight
of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time
period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within
six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to
accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the
eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight
previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637
through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped
near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest
number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when
that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes,
it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the
markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower
--waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or
slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
Regarding what happened last year. August 18 was the
beginning of the Puetz window and I made a mental note that the high preceding
the Sept, Oct and Nov crashes, occurred in the Puetz window. Perhaps that’s
the “Ross modification” of the “Puetz window.”
Regardless, I’d rather be lucky than good and last fall was very good to
me. We won the tournament that weekend too.
Again, the above circumstances, I understand, occur twice each
year. VJ
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 12:45 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Jim,
how long does the Puetz crash window remain open? I am also looking at the 11th
as a low.
-----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Jim Ross
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 12:08 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
I always lose track of full moons.
However, we remain in a “Puetz” crash window (crashes never occur
outside a Puetz window, but do not always occur during a Putetz window-see
Peter Eliades work and Chris Carolan’s work). A severe downturn,
however brief, is still possible.
My preferred reading of EW (ala
Hochberg/Prechter), McHugh’s phi dates, and Armstrong’s PEI has a
w2 of w5 of w1 (Hochberg/Prechter’s current count) completing imminently
at current levels or slightly higher, thereafter, with 3 waves down to test Nov
’08 lows and maybe even 2002 lows. To get to Armstrong’s
‘reactionary high’ in March 2009 there would then need to be a
powerful V bottom and rally (see Armstrong’s “It’s Just
Time” dated 10/8/08). Just trying to put pieces together.
If you want to get a feel for how Nenner
synthesizes his forecasts, the following 2007 video is a pretty exhaustive
video Woon his methods. It’s not a
pure methodology. It includes EW, cycles, Fibs, solar sunspot
cycles….. Its apparently his methodology doesn’t say
“This is the day” or “This is the price.” Rather,
we’re very close in TIME.
http://charlesnenner.com/inthenews-2007-07-12embedded.html
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:45 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Wow Jim! I just read through all
the clips.
The week of the 9th is 13 weeks
from the Nov low with the 5th pointing to a CIT (thinking high of the week).
The 9th should be bullish (Full
Moon in Leo) but possibly the low will be another day. Haytham's statistic
plays out often, Friday down= Monday and at least one other day down in the
following week. Down can be LL and up too. Maybe Feb 11th?
[>>] -----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Jim Ross
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:31 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Saw the interview. Loved the
comment “I’m never wrong.” I admit, he is
amazing. BUT, I saw him in March 2008 on CNBC when he declared the low
was likely in for the year. OOPS. I’ve spent this morning
since then catching up on the videos that are on the net for Nenner. He
combines EW, cycles, solarspot cycles, Fibs and tons of price observations
going back several hundred years and creates cycles that point to turning
points. EXCEPT for the bad 2008 call, which I can’t find a video
for it (not surprised), he’s pretty accurate in terms of time. And
on this one, I agree with an exception. I think the buy is going to be a
lot lower even though its only days away.
He did say on CNBC this morning, the low
and the buy point is any day now.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 10:40 AM
To: Realtraders
Subject: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Just saw him on CNBC and
researched him too. He is calling for a bottom (within a few days) until Mid
March. He seemed disinclined to point to date or price but apparently is well
able to do that. Anybody got a clue about his forecasts?
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