|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Oky Ketayun, now you have me hooked. Following is the
lunar and solar dates of relevance:
|
1/11/2009
|
Full moon
|
|
|
|
1/26/2009
|
Annular Solar Eclipse
|
|
|
2/9/2009
|
Full moon AND Penumbral Lunar Eclipse
|
|
3/11/2009
|
Full moon
|
|
|
According to the second paragraph of the below definitions,
2/9/09 is the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also
a lunar eclipse. I seem to recall other definitions that had
the window starting at the full moon preceding the solar eclipse and ending
after the full moon after the solar eclipse but I can’t find the exact
formulation. Given that there are two windows per year and 8
crashes in the last couple centuries, then it’s probably not something
about which one should obsess….. but not something to be ignored either.
After all, 8 out of 8 greatest crashes in recorded history occurred in the
Puetz window. If Hochberg/Prechter are correct and this is w5 down, then
a test of the 2002 lows is forthcoming. For QQQQs as an example, that’s
a 36% drop!!!!!
Yesterday there was a very small move in the McClellan
Oscillator. I’ve read Shem McClellan’s son did a study on
small move in the McClellan Os versus subsequent day price action and did not
find a correlation. However, McHugh notes the small McClellan Os moves
and I’ve been noting them because of that. I’d say the last 6
out of 6 small moves in the Oscillator were followed by big price moves based
on my mental notes. Really really big moves, like Oct 19 (up), Oct 29
(down) etc as I recollect. Not happening today but you’ve got to
give it 2 days.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Jim Ross
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 1:10 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Ketayun RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Wow, it’s a window that extends
from the date of the full moon preceding a solar eclipse to the next full moon
after the solar eclipse. Not really, I can seldom get the algorithm
straight in my mind. Steven Puetz discovered that all crashes (movements
greater than a certain %) occurred within his defined window. I think
that 8 out of 8 historic crashes occurred within the window.
Elliades and Carolan have refined Puetz’ work so please do
refer to their careful definitions. But there are two windows every
year. Obviously, two crashes don’t occur every year. So the
rule is that IF a crash occurs, it won’t occur OUTSIDE the window
(statistically that is). Last year I was following it so closely that on
August 16 the window opened and I was convinced there would thereafter
(sometime) be a crash. I was so obsessed that I told my doubles
partner and two other golf buddies a crash was going to occur on the practice
tee of a tournament (exactly August 16). Well, a crash did not occur that
Monday August 18. However, a crash cycle obviously began. I just went
back to my Outllok Calendar notes because I’d followed the window last
year and I had made notes of my research regarding the Puetz window
definition. I believe the following are excerpts according to articles
available on the Web that are authored by Peter Eliades and Chris Carolan
(separately):
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses
and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion
on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market
timing, let's simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He
emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses
cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general
and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to
be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor
psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight
of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time
period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within
six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to
accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the
eighth power less than one chance in 127,000."
". . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various
markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990.
He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are
also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start
after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a
lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from
two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days
ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower --waiting for the full moon
to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the
crash hits the marketplace."
Regarding what happened last year.
August 18 was the beginning of the Puetz window and I made a mental note that
the high preceding the Sept, Oct and Nov crashes, occurred in the Puetz
window. Perhaps that’s the “Ross modification” of the
“Puetz window.” Regardless, I’d rather be lucky than
good and last fall was very good to me. We won the tournament that
weekend too.
Again, the above circumstances, I
understand, occur twice each year. VJ
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 12:45 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Jim, how long does the Puetz
crash window remain open? I am also looking at the 11th as a low.
-----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Jim Ross
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 12:08 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
I always lose track of full moons.
However, we remain in a “Puetz” crash window (crashes never occur
outside a Puetz window, but do not always occur during a Putetz window-see
Peter Eliades work and Chris Carolan’s work). A severe downturn,
however brief, is still possible.
My preferred reading of EW (ala
Hochberg/Prechter), McHugh’s phi dates, and Armstrong’s PEI has a
w2 of w5 of w1 (Hochberg/Prechter’s current count) completing imminently
at current levels or slightly higher, thereafter, with 3 waves down to test Nov
’08 lows and maybe even 2002 lows. To get to Armstrong’s
‘reactionary high’ in March 2009 there would then need to be a
powerful V bottom and rally (see Armstrong’s “It’s Just
Time” dated 10/8/08). Just trying to put pieces together.
If you want to get a feel for how Nenner
synthesizes his forecasts, the following 2007 video is a pretty exhaustive
video Woon his methods. It’s not a pure methodology. It
includes EW, cycles, Fibs, solar sunspot cycles….. Its apparently
his methodology doesn’t say “This is the day” or “This
is the price.” Rather, we’re very close in TIME.
http://charlesnenner.com/inthenews-2007-07-12embedded.html
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:45 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Wow Jim! I just read through all
the clips.
The week of the 9th is 13 weeks
from the Nov low with the 5th pointing to a CIT (thinking high of the week).
The 9th should be bullish (Full
Moon in Leo) but possibly the low will be another day. Haytham's statistic
plays out often, Friday down= Monday and at least one other day down in the
following week. Down can be LL and up too. Maybe Feb 11th?
[>>] -----Original Message-----
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]On
Behalf Of Jim Ross
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 11:31 AM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Saw the interview. Loved the
comment “I’m never wrong.” I admit, he is
amazing. BUT, I saw him in March 2008 on CNBC when he declared the low
was likely in for the year. OOPS. I’ve spent this morning
since then catching up on the videos that are on the net for Nenner. He
combines EW, cycles, solarspot cycles, Fibs and tons of price observations going
back several hundred years and creates cycles that point to turning
points. EXCEPT for the bad 2008 call, which I can’t find a video
for it (not surprised), he’s pretty accurate in terms of time. And
on this one, I agree with an exception. I think the buy is going to be a
lot lower even though its only days away.
He did say on CNBC this morning, the low
and the buy point is any day now.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Ketayun
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2009 10:40 AM
To: Realtraders
Subject: [RT] RE: Charles Nenner
Just saw him on CNBC and
researched him too. He is calling for a bottom (within a few days) until Mid
March. He seemed disinclined to point to date or price but apparently is well
able to do that. Anybody got a clue about his forecasts?
__._,_.___
![]()
__,_._,___
|
|