Well Ira, I'm a cynic too. You and I grew up in an era when people
paid for what they could afford and saved for what they couldn't afford.
We grew up in a time when a man's handshake was sufficient to close nearly any
deal and a man's honor was the most important possession he owned. I
have a great fear for the U.S. and that fear is based on several things.
In no particular order of importance, they are:
Education: Our
education system which was one of the top 5 in the world is now 29th and
getting worse. The "No Child Left Behind" idiocy has meant that many of
our children graduate from high school unable to read or write with
proficiency. They have little to no idea where continents are located
let alone counties and their math skills are about what you and I were taught
in 5th grade. The dumbing down of American children will come with a
terrible price one day and it's all being done for the sake of political
correctness and the powerful teacher's union.
Boomers: As
the baby boomers retire, there will be a load put on social security and
medicare that can not be sustained. There will simply not be sufficient
workers to support the system and yet, how can we dismantle a system these
people paid into their entire lives? The money should be there. It
would be there if the government hadn't and doesn't spend it all every month
by transferring it into the general revenue fund and then selling bonds to pay
the retirees back *their* money.
Health Care: The costs
are completely out of control and the quality is dropping. Based on
mortality rates for infants and cancer plus a few other qualifiers, we are now
dead last in health care among industrialized nations. We are paying
more and getting less and if that isn't enough to be concerned and furious
about, we have some politicians who want to give it free to everyone.
That would be the end of this country in terms of fiscal responsibility.
It simply would bankrupt America in short order. To try and support such
a system, we could expect to pay what some European nations pay in income
taxes which currently are as high as 70% of gross. It isn't
totally due to politics either, we have hospitals being run by doctors who
know as much about how to run a business as they know about fly fishing.
Step one would be to get those people out of control and get
businessmen/women running them.
National Debt: We
have written checks that our children can't cover and their children can't
cover and we keep adding to that total. If I were a candidate for the
presidency, I would vow to cut spending by 5% across the board every year for
5 years excluding only social security and medicare since that money belongs
to those who paid it. I would pay government department heads based on
how much they can save each year rather than how large their budget is with
the caveat that quality of service must be maintained.
In
conclusion, we must wonder how the economy in America is going to prosper
under the conditions described above with a service oriented atmosphere sans
high wages and high skills. We have a debt that seems impossible to deal
with and a banking system in nearly total disarray. We are a people
living for today with little regard for the future and we are spending the
savings of our workers paid through social security, unemployment and medicare
as fast as those savings arrive. From our government to the bus driver,
there are nearly zero plans for the future. The Fed thinks the answer is
to make money even easier to get and the only positive coming out of that is
the banks are hoarding the money to cover their own losses rather than lending
it out. The dollar is plunging against most other currencies and
commodities are pushing inflation ever higher. For equity investors the
future does not look positive unless one shorts the markets and this is not
easy for mutual fund investors.
Oh well, we've had 2 good days
.. maybe we found a bottom. And maybe all those higher costs Ira
mentioned will go back down soon.. right after oil goes back to $12.00 a
barrel and it snows here in Southwest Florida.
Bob
At
11:21 AM 2/26/2008, you wrote:
Bob:
Another problem is that when
all of this comes to an end will price actually come down. Once the
suppliers realize that we will pay these high prices how far will they back
off? I don't think we will see lower prices after ethanol is done
for. At least not prices where they were when it all started.
Time to start baking your own bread again. There are depression type
conditions for many families. I just paid $4.85 for a $1.00 loaf of
bread. Milk is up 30% in just a couple of months and right now there
is no end in sight.
The housing
problem has hit about bottom or will by July or August of this year.
Right now there is about an eleven month supply of homes. By the end
of this year or the first quarter of next year the banks, investment banks
and mortgage companies should have been able to write down their bad loans
and the last of the ARMs will have kicked in. The $168 billion
stimulus package will have taken effect. Those that are gong to go
bankrupt will have done so and those that are really deep in debt to credit
card companies will be paying between 24% and 50% interest on their
balances.
What the government needs
to do and won't because of the money they receive from lobbyists and
invested companies is re-establish usury laws,
increase interest rates to stop inflation, reduce government spending on
farm supports and ethanol production, stimulate construction of hydrogen
filling stations and put together some of the old New Deal projects that
will put Americans to work. Stop the tax breaks for farming out
production and services overseas and bring those jobs back home.
It is all a dream right now and I know
that our government won't do what is necessary but what is expedient for
their own self service. They will increase their own salaries,
increase their own retirement benefits and health care benefits and screw
their constituents, the American people. This is not a political
dissertation, it is fundamental analysis.
After all of these years, yes I am a cynic.
Just one man's opinion,
Ira
www.delta100.com
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
- Sent: Sunday, February 24, 2008 4:51 PM
- Subject: Re: [RT] Credit Cards
- The latest scam being brought down on us is the ethanol nonsense which
has raised food prices and will continue to do so until someone steps up
and explains that ethanol costs more to produce than fossil fuel and it
pollutes worse than gasoline. We need to begin building nuke plants
again and do so without regard to who wants what in their backyard.
Next, we need to figure out what we're going to do with the waste.
(I suggest an island in the Bering Sea). Then, we need to put some
serious money into hydrogen fuel cell development and add as much solar
and wind power as is reasonably possible. Farmers may be
getting rich off ethanol but most of us are just paying for a political
game when we shop at the grocery store. Worse, the game is destined
to fail and fail at our expense. Surprise!
- Bob
- At 06:57 PM 2/24/2008, you wrote:
- Here are some interesting facts from today's
paper. With the mortgage default rate rising there are more and
more people living off of their credit cards. I can imagine, I
just paid $4.85 for a loaf of bread that was less than $2,00 a year
ago.
- Total credit card debt in the U.S. is $943 billion
- The number of credit cards is 1.2 billion
- The number of credit cards per person is 7
- The Average debt per household is $9,840
- The annual debt service cost per household is $1500
- Only 7% or the households have no credit cards
- Only 32% pay their bill monthly
- 8% of the card holders owe more than $25,000
- The U.S; Savings rate is 0.5%
- Not a really good picture for a consumer driven
economy.
- Ira
- www.delta100.com