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Well Ira, I'm a cynic too. You and I grew up in an era when people
paid for what they could afford and saved for what they couldn't
afford. We grew up in a time when a man's handshake was sufficient
to close nearly any deal and a man's honor was the most important
possession he owned. I have a great fear for the U.S. and that fear
is based on several things. In no particular order of importance,
they are:
Education: Our education system which was one of the top 5 in the
world is now 29th and getting worse. The "No Child Left
Behind" idiocy has meant that many of our children graduate from
high school unable to read or write with proficiency. They have
little to no idea where continents are located let alone counties and
their math skills are about what you and I were taught in 5th
grade. The dumbing down of American children will come with a
terrible price one day and it's all being done for the sake of political
correctness and the powerful teacher's union.
Boomers: As the baby boomers retire, there will be a load put on
social security and medicare that can not be sustained. There will
simply not be sufficient workers to support the system and yet, how can
we dismantle a system these people paid into their entire lives?
The money should be there. It would be there if the government
hadn't and doesn't spend it all every month by transferring it into the
general revenue fund and then selling bonds to pay the retirees back
*their* money.
Health Care: The costs are completely out of control and the
quality is dropping. Based on mortality rates for infants and
cancer plus a few other qualifiers, we are now dead last in health care
among industrialized nations. We are paying more and getting less
and if that isn't enough to be concerned and furious about, we have some
politicians who want to give it free to everyone. That would be the
end of this country in terms of fiscal responsibility. It simply
would bankrupt America in short order. To try and support such a
system, we could expect to pay what some European nations pay in income
taxes which currently are as high as 70% of gross. It isn't
totally due to politics either, we have hospitals being run by doctors
who know as much about how to run a business as they know about fly
fishing. Step one would be to get those people out of control and
get businessmen/women running them.
National Debt: We have written checks that our children can't cover
and their children can't cover and we keep adding to that total. If
I were a candidate for the presidency, I would vow to cut spending by 5%
across the board every year for 5 years excluding only social security
and medicare since that money belongs to those who paid it. I would
pay government department heads based on how much they can save each year
rather than how large their budget is with the caveat that quality of
service must be maintained.
In conclusion, we must wonder how the economy in America is going to
prosper under the conditions described above with a service oriented
atmosphere sans high wages and high skills. We have a debt that
seems impossible to deal with and a banking system in nearly total
disarray. We are a people living for today with little regard for
the future and we are spending the savings of our workers paid through
social security, unemployment and medicare as fast as those savings
arrive. From our government to the bus driver, there are nearly
zero plans for the future. The Fed thinks the answer is to make
money even easier to get and the only positive coming out of that is the
banks are hoarding the money to cover their own losses rather than
lending it out. The dollar is plunging against most other
currencies and commodities are pushing inflation ever higher. For
equity investors the future does not look positive unless one shorts the
markets and this is not easy for mutual fund investors.
Oh well, we've had 2 good days .. maybe we found a bottom. And
maybe all those higher costs Ira mentioned will go back down soon.. right
after oil goes back to $12.00 a barrel and it snows here in Southwest
Florida.
Bob
At 11:21 AM 2/26/2008, you wrote:
Bob:
Another problem is that when all of this comes to an end
will price actually come down. Once the suppliers realize that we
will pay these high prices how far will they back off? I don't
think we will see lower prices after ethanol is done for. At least
not prices where they were when it all started. Time to start
baking your own bread again. There are depression type conditions
for many families. I just paid $4.85 for a $1.00 loaf of
bread. Milk is up 30% in just a couple of months and right now
there is no end in sight.
The housing problem has hit about bottom or will by July or
August of this year. Right now there is about an eleven month
supply of homes. By the end of this year or the first quarter of
next year the banks, investment banks and mortgage companies should have
been able to write down their bad loans and the last of the ARMs will
have kicked in. The $168 billion stimulus package will have taken
effect. Those that are gong to go bankrupt will have done so and
those that are really deep in debt to credit card companies will be
paying between 24% and 50% interest on their balances.
What the government needs to do and won't because of the
money they receive from lobbyists and invested companies
is re-establish usury laws, increase interest rates to
stop inflation, reduce government spending on farm supports and ethanol
production, stimulate construction of hydrogen filling stations and put
together some of the old New Deal projects that will put Americans to
work. Stop the tax breaks for farming out production and services
overseas and bring those jobs back home.
It is all a dream right now and I know that our government
won't do what is necessary but what is expedient for their own self
service. They will increase their own salaries, increase their own
retirement benefits and health care benefits and screw their
constituents, the American people. This is not a political
dissertation, it is fundamental analysis.
After all of these years, yes I am a cynic.
Just one man's opinion,
Ira
www.delta100.com
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Sunday, February 24, 2008 4:51 PM
- Subject: Re: [RT] Credit Cards
- The latest scam being brought down on us is the ethanol nonsense
which has raised food prices and will continue to do so until someone
steps up and explains that ethanol costs more to produce than fossil fuel
and it pollutes worse than gasoline. We need to begin building nuke
plants again and do so without regard to who wants what in their
backyard. Next, we need to figure out what we're going to do with
the waste. (I suggest an island in the Bering Sea). Then, we
need to put some serious money into hydrogen fuel cell development and
add as much solar and wind power as is reasonably
possible. Farmers may be getting rich off ethanol but
most of us are just paying for a political game when we shop at the
grocery store. Worse, the game is destined to fail and fail at our
expense. Surprise!
- Bob
- At 06:57 PM 2/24/2008, you wrote:
- Here are some interesting facts from today's
paper. With the mortgage default rate rising there are more and
more people living off of their credit cards. I can imagine, I just
paid $4.85 for a loaf of bread that was less than $2,00 a year ago.
-
- Total credit card debt in the U.S. is $943 billion
- The number of credit cards is 1.2 billion
- The number of credit cards per person is 7
- The Average debt per household is $9,840
- The annual debt service cost per household is $1500
- Only 7% or the households have no credit cards
- Only 32% pay their bill monthly
- 8% of the card holders owe more than $25,000
- The U.S; Savings rate is 0.5%
-
- Not a really good picture for a consumer driven economy.
- Ira
- www.delta100.com
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