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You're correct that there were no mutual funds in the 1920s, but there
were "investment trusts" that functioned and were marketed in a
similar way. Many used leverage. The investment trusts were
absolutely decimated by the early 1930s and individual investors
shunned fund-like investments until, I believe, the 1960s.
Certainly the level of globalization wasn't there in the 1910s and
1920s. However, I think globalization can bite investors in the butt,
because the markets are so interconnected that disruptions move
throughout markets as we saw in January. Inter-market diversification
is not as effective as it used to be. Before the Panic of 1819,
economic crises and depressions were largely regional (such as Ohio
bank failures or depressions in New England). I think 1819-1821 was
the first depression with a nationwide scope. The Great Depression
crossed international borders in a big way for the first time and
affected not only the U.S., but its trade partners like Canada and
Britain. Today, the intertwining of markets means the impact from a
serious disruption (and I'm not suggesting there will be one) would be
very pervasive.
From: BobsKC <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Friday, February 22, 2008, 7:35:38 AM
Subject: [RT] Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally priced at $29)
Just Prector .. He's been predicting doom all through out the bull
market we've been in including through nearly all of the tech bubble
which would have wiped out most people following his advice. He now
admits to under-estimating the length of wave C but only after no one
had any money left who had been believers. His view is that even
though the market makeup changes, people do not change but even that
is flawed because when he looks at the conditions in 1929, the people
in that market had an entirely different geographical and financial
makeup than today. There was no one world market.. no world economy,
no ADR's. Stocks were being purchased for .10 on the dollar. I
wasn't alive then but I don't believe there were mutual funds. So,the
players are vastly different, the game is different and the rules are
different but he doggedly sticks to his theme that it's all the same
and history will repeat itself. A view that has been extremely costly
to his followers.
Bob
At 12:39 AM 2/22/2008, you wrote:
Does this mean you're not a Prector fan or not an Elliot Wave fan?
Just curious if there is a distinction, and if so, why?
Thanks
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