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I don't believe I said that history would not repeat itself Ira.
What I said was Prector believes it will do this because people have not
changed and I do not believe that is true. Investors have changed
and they have changed dramatically as have the markets. If your
process brings you success then of course you will continue to use it and
I have no doubt, continue to be successful. However, your system is
mitigated by your 35 years of experience and if you were to just transfer
that system to an individual without your experience, the system might
fail if it was no longer diluted with your personal knowledge.
Prector seems to ignore his failures and preach the same exact thing even
while losing most or all of his customer's/follower's money. To me,
it is obvious that he has not learned anything personally but rather
dogmatically sticks to the picture he wants to see in technical
analysis.
Bob
At 12:17 PM 2/22/2008, you wrote:
In every profession
there are people that get stuck in their own belief system and can make
what ever they see conform to what they want it to look like. As
for history not repeating itself, I will have to disagree with you.
All technical analysis is based upon the fact that certain things
continue to happen with a great degree of consistence. That is what
make technical analysis work. The thing that gets in the way is the
human factor. This is the case in every failed enterprise as well
as every success.
Those who can understand what they are looking at and how to
use that knowledge will always succeed. Those that follow rotely
are doomed to fail at some point. It is the ability to apply the
knowledge with as little bias as possible that creates success.
That is one of the reasons that I preach, look at both moves up and down
all the time. What has to happen for prices to rise and what has to
happen for prices to fall? The problem with most traders is that
they only look in one direction and caught up in their belief system and
don't look at what will make their decision wrong. They usually use
financial pain as an exit level rather than a price point that says they
are wrong.
I have used the same system for over 35 years and never had
to change it, adjust it or tweak it and it has worked successfully in all
kinds of markets and it still works today. So does history
repeat itself? All of the time. Minute by minute to year
after year.
Just one man's opinion,
Ira
www.delta100.com
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: BobsKC
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 7:35 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally
priced at $29)
- Just Prector .. He's been predicting doom all through out the bull
market we've been in including through nearly all of the tech bubble
which would have wiped out most people following his advice. He now
admits to under-estimating the length of wave C but only after no one had
any money left who had been believers. His view is that even though
the market makeup changes, people do not change but even that is flawed
because when he looks at the conditions in 1929, the people in that
market had an entirely different geographical and financial makeup than
today. There was no one world market.. no world economy, no
ADR's. Stocks were being purchased for .10 on the dollar. I
wasn't alive then but I don't believe there were mutual funds. So,
the players are vastly different, the game is different and the rules are
different but he doggedly sticks to his theme that it's all the same and
history will repeat itself. A view that has been extremely costly
to his followers.
- Bob
- At 12:39 AM 2/22/2008, you wrote:
-
- Does this mean you're not a Prector fan or not an Elliot Wave
fan?
-
- Just curious if there is a distinction, and if so, why?
-
- Thanks
-
-
-
- In a message dated 2/22/2008 12:03:38 A.M. Eastern Standard Time,
bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
- Prector is still around huh? Every time the market sinks a bit,
his name returns to the media so it's not really surprising I
guess. By the time he was right about the markets from the '90's,
his followers had to all be busted but I guess there is a new crop
now.
- Bob
- At 10:31 PM 2/21/2008, you
wrote:
- Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally priced at
$29)
- EIliott Wave International is giving away one of Bob Prechter's most
recent Elliott Wave Theorists. You can read his publication free of
charge. Single issues are normally priced at $29.
-
http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url="">
- No virus found in this incoming message.
- Checked by AVG Free Edition.
- Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.20.9/1291 - Release Date:
2/21/2008 11:05 AM
-
- Delicious ideas to please the pickiest eaters.
Watch the video on AOL Living.
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