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PureBytes Links
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http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Pete-
These guys appear to be doing something constructive w/
volume.
You might check them out.
Chas
-----
On Thu, 24 Jan 2008 09:13:12 -0600
"Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Pete-
>
> Thanks. Iv'e been studying volume for years; as have
> probably othere members on
> this forum. It's a real challenge when volume isn't
>what
> it used (or supposed)
> to be. Tks for you feedback.
>
> Chas
> -----
>
>
> On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 19:44:32 -0500
> Pete Lieber <plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>
>> Chas,
>>
>> Yes, I've tried both NYSE & OTC total volume.
>> Unfortunately, both are lousy indicators.
>>
>> Pete
>>
>>
>> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: chaze@xxxxxxxxxxxx:
>>Wed, 23 Jan 2008 13:04:14 -0600Subject: Re: [RT] One
>>Indicator Calling Up Tomorrow
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Pete-Forgive any oversite on my part, but did you ever
>>try total NYSE volume or total OTC volume?Chas----On Wed,
>>23 Jan 2008 12:01:12 -0500Pete Lieber
>><plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:> > Dan,> > Back in the
>>early 1980's I looked at the Dow volume all >different
>>ways - OBV, Price Volume Trend (V * ((C - >C1)/C1)),
>>Accumulation/Distribution (V * ((C - C1)/(H - >L))) and
>>its variation > (V * ((C - O)/(H - L))). Later I took
>>each of the Dow >30 stocks and added all their volume up
>>using the >following formula:> > DJc = Price of the DJIA>
>>AvgV30 = 30 day average of volume> Cum = Cumulative> C1 =
>>Previous Close> > Cum((V/AvgV30)*(C/DJc)*((C - C1)/(H -
>>L)))> > > As I said in my previous email the volume of
>>big cap >stocks does not work well. I use the above
>>technique on >the 100 stocks that comprise the NASDAQ-100
>>(NDX). > Unfortunately it is a > cap-weighted index where
>>the top 10 stocks account for >over 37.5% of the total.
>>Thus it doesn't work very well. > I'm next going to try
>>the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted >index.> Hopefully that
>>will prove more effective.> > I hope this answers your
>>question.> > Pete> > PS My prediction that the SP-500
>>will finish up today is >not looking too good. I should
>>have said the SP-500 will >finish up from the open <g>.>
>>> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>>>grumpeeone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 08:00:32
>>>-0800Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>>Tomorrow> Pete,I am curious about HOW you calculated your
>>DOW >volume. Adv - Decline, cumulative, or?Dan Pete
>>Lieber >wrote: > > > Ben, For years I've been trying to
>>time the market via >volume. Back in 1983 I bought an IBM
>>PC and Lotus 123 to >specifically do just this. I set up
>>this modest >spreadsheet with the DJIA volume, hit the
>>'Calc' key, and >was told I didn't have enough memory
>>(460k) to complete >the calculation. I had to go out and
>>buy 640K of memory >($500) just to complete the
>>calculation. As it turned >out my volume indicator
>>indicated nothing. Years later I >combined the individual
>>volume of each of the Dow 30 >stocks into one volume
>>indicator. Again the combined >volume indicator indicated
>>nothing. I slowly came to the >realization that volume
>>does not work with large cap >stocks. I've assumed they
>>don't work because of program >trading, which buys and
>>sells large cap (i.e. SP-500 >companies) stocks for other
>>reasons than their intrinsic >value. For this reason when
>>I trade individual stocks it >is invariably mid-cap
>>stocks - stocks whose volume more >accurately reflects
>>whether thay are being accumulated or >distributed. For
>>the opposite reason I avoid small and >micro-cap stocks.
>>Thay have too little volume. So for >years I was stuck
>>with trying to time the market via >volume. The market
>>followed the large caps and the >volume of the large caps
>>was unreliable. Then I hit upon >the idea of tracking the
>>volume of the individual >industries that make up the
>>SP-500. The best industry >lists I could find were the
>>Hemscott Industry Groupings >(see
>>>http://www.hemscottdata.com/fin_database/na_hemscott_industry_group.html).
>>> But where to find volume data for the Hemscott
>>>industries? As it turned out TC-2000 software carries
>>>Hemscott industries and their volume. The SPX volume
>>>indicator that I occasionally send to this group
>>consists >of the volume of 23 Hemscott Industry Groups or
>>>Sub-Groups. These 2! 3 groups make up the nucleous of
>>>the SP-500. I'm sure I can tweak the mix of industry
>>>groupings and their individual weightings to make the
>>>indicator better, but I have gotten around to it. I've
>>>got my computer setup to where I can quickly update my
>>>spreadsheet with Hemscott Industry data. Unfortunately
>>>the Hemscott Industry data in TC-2000 lags the actual
>>>market by 20 minutes or more. So only EOD data (> hour
>>>after the close) accurately reflects the true volume.
>>>Lately I've been trying to time the market by giving
>>each >index component a vote (bullish = 1, bearish = -1)
>>and >adding up all the individual votes. The attached
>>chart >shows the results of such testing. For any of you
>>who >know system testing the attached spreadsheet is not
>>very >good. The equity line is not a smooth upward line.
>>> Most of the equity was made in a relatively short
>>period >of time. PLUS, I did no out of sample testing. So
>>it is >safe to say that the attached sample is somewhat
>>>curved-fitted. In its defense there is only one variable
>>>and it is profitable throughout a large range. My
>>>problem is what formula to use to say whether an
>>>individual stock is 'bullish' or 'bearish'. I'd like to
>>>hear from any of you out there if you have ideas or
>>>suggestions. I'd be happy to share any of my findings
>>>and/or work with any of you. Unfortunately the
>>>spreadsheets are quite large (59 MB), so I'm at a loss
>>at >to how to send them out. Pete > > > To:
>>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>>>profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 22:18:59
>>>-0500Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>>Tomorrow> > > > Hello Peter> this is why i stick to
>>volume work> it has a lead time> sometime 1 day sometime
>>a whole week> p,s> > if we open gap down because of AAPL>
>>buy the dips> low will be 1258.05 cash tomorrow> Ben> >
>>----- Original Message ----- >From: Pete Lieber > To:
>>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > Sent: Tuesday, January 22,
>>2008 10:13 PM> Subject: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>>Tomorrow> > My volume indicator has had a fair record in
>>calling day >ahead turns in the market. The indicator
>>(see attached >chart) says the SP-500 will be up
>>tomorrow. On December >6 I sent out an email stating to
>>go short in the '1491 - >1492 range'. As the second chart
>>shows I was 3 days too >early. Oh well, you win some and
>>lose some. Pete> > No virus found in this incoming
>>message.Checked by AVG >Free Edition. Version: 7.5.516 /
>>Virus Database: >269.19.9/1237 - Release Date: 1/22/2008
>>11:04 AM> >
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
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