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Pete-
Forgive any oversite on my part, but did you ever try
total NYSE volume or total OTC volume?
Chas
----
On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 12:01:12 -0500
Pete Lieber <plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Dan,
>
> Back in the early 1980's I looked at the Dow volume all
>different ways - OBV, Price Volume Trend (V * ((C -
>C1)/C1)), Accumulation/Distribution (V * ((C - C1)/(H -
>L))) and its variation
> (V * ((C - O)/(H - L))). Later I took each of the Dow
>30 stocks and added all their volume up using the
>following formula:
>
> DJc = Price of the DJIA
> AvgV30 = 30 day average of volume
> Cum = Cumulative
> C1 = Previous Close
>
> Cum((V/AvgV30)*(C/DJc)*((C - C1)/(H - L)))
>
>
> As I said in my previous email the volume of big cap
>stocks does not work well. I use the above technique on
>the 100 stocks that comprise the NASDAQ-100 (NDX).
> Unfortunately it is a
> cap-weighted index where the top 10 stocks account for
>over 37.5% of the total. Thus it doesn't work very well.
> I'm next going to try the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted
>index.
> Hopefully that will prove more effective.
>
> I hope this answers your question.
>
> Pete
>
> PS My prediction that the SP-500 will finish up today is
>not looking too good. I should have said the SP-500 will
>finish up from the open <g>.
>
>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>grumpeeone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 08:00:32
>-0800Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up Tomorrow
> Pete,I am curious about HOW you calculated your DOW
>volume. Adv - Decline, cumulative, or?Dan Pete Lieber
>wrote:
>
>
> Ben, For years I've been trying to time the market via
>volume. Back in 1983 I bought an IBM PC and Lotus 123 to
>specifically do just this. I set up this modest
>spreadsheet with the DJIA volume, hit the 'Calc' key, and
>was told I didn't have enough memory (460k) to complete
>the calculation. I had to go out and buy 640K of memory
>($500) just to complete the calculation. As it turned
>out my volume indicator indicated nothing. Years later I
>combined the individual volume of each of the Dow 30
>stocks into one volume indicator. Again the combined
>volume indicator indicated nothing. I slowly came to the
>realization that volume does not work with large cap
>stocks. I've assumed they don't work because of program
>trading, which buys and sells large cap (i.e. SP-500
>companies) stocks for other reasons than their intrinsic
>value. For this reason when I trade individual stocks it
>is invariably mid-cap stocks - stocks whose volume more
>accurately reflects whether thay are being accumulated or
>distributed. For the opposite reason I avoid small and
>micro-cap stocks. Thay have too little volume. So for
>years I was stuck with trying to time the market via
>volume. The market followed the large caps and the
>volume of the large caps was unreliable. Then I hit upon
>the idea of tracking the volume of the individual
>industries that make up the SP-500. The best industry
>lists I could find were the Hemscott Industry Groupings
>(see
>http://www.hemscottdata.com/fin_database/na_hemscott_industry_group.html).
> But where to find volume data for the Hemscott
>industries? As it turned out TC-2000 software carries
>Hemscott industries and their volume. The SPX volume
>indicator that I occasionally send to this group consists
>of the volume of 23 Hemscott Industry Groups or
>Sub-Groups. These 2! 3 groups make up the nucleous of
>the SP-500. I'm sure I can tweak the mix of industry
>groupings and their individual weightings to make the
>indicator better, but I have gotten around to it. I've
>got my computer setup to where I can quickly update my
>spreadsheet with Hemscott Industry data. Unfortunately
>the Hemscott Industry data in TC-2000 lags the actual
>market by 20 minutes or more. So only EOD data (> hour
>after the close) accurately reflects the true volume.
>Lately I've been trying to time the market by giving each
>index component a vote (bullish = 1, bearish = -1) and
>adding up all the individual votes. The attached chart
>shows the results of such testing. For any of you who
>know system testing the attached spreadsheet is not very
>good. The equity line is not a smooth upward line.
> Most of the equity was made in a relatively short period
>of time. PLUS, I did no out of sample testing. So it is
>safe to say that the attached sample is somewhat
>curved-fitted. In its defense there is only one variable
>and it is profitable throughout a large range. My
>problem is what formula to use to say whether an
>individual stock is 'bullish' or 'bearish'. I'd like to
>hear from any of you out there if you have ideas or
>suggestions. I'd be happy to share any of my findings
>and/or work with any of you. Unfortunately the
>spreadsheets are quite large (59 MB), so I'm at a loss at
>to how to send them out. Pete
>
>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 22:18:59
>-0500Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up Tomorrow
>
>
>
> Hello Peter
> this is why i stick to volume work
> it has a lead time
> sometime 1 day sometime a whole week
> p,s
>
> if we open gap down because of AAPL
> buy the dips
> low will be 1258.05 cash tomorrow
> Ben
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>From: Pete Lieber
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 10:13 PM
> Subject: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up Tomorrow
>
> My volume indicator has had a fair record in calling day
>ahead turns in the market. The indicator (see attached
>chart) says the SP-500 will be up tomorrow. On December
>6 I sent out an email stating to go short in the '1491 -
>1492 range'. As the second chart shows I was 3 days too
>early. Oh well, you win some and lose some. Pete
>
> No virus found in this incoming message.Checked by AVG
>Free Edition. Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database:
>269.19.9/1237 - Release Date: 1/22/2008 11:04 AM
>
>
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