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Pete-
Thanks. Iv'e been studying volume for years; as have
probably othere members on
this forum. It's a real challenge when volume isn't what
it used (or supposed)
to be. Tks for you feedback.
Chas
-----
On Wed, 23 Jan 2008 19:44:32 -0500
Pete Lieber <plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Chas,
>
> Yes, I've tried both NYSE & OTC total volume.
> Unfortunately, both are lousy indicators.
>
> Pete
>
>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: chaze@xxxxxxxxxxxx:
>Wed, 23 Jan 2008 13:04:14 -0600Subject: Re: [RT] One
>Indicator Calling Up Tomorrow
>
>
>
>
> Pete-Forgive any oversite on my part, but did you ever
>try total NYSE volume or total OTC volume?Chas----On Wed,
>23 Jan 2008 12:01:12 -0500Pete Lieber
><plieber@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:> > Dan,> > Back in the
>early 1980's I looked at the Dow volume all >different
>ways - OBV, Price Volume Trend (V * ((C - >C1)/C1)),
>Accumulation/Distribution (V * ((C - C1)/(H - >L))) and
>its variation > (V * ((C - O)/(H - L))). Later I took
>each of the Dow >30 stocks and added all their volume up
>using the >following formula:> > DJc = Price of the DJIA>
>AvgV30 = 30 day average of volume> Cum = Cumulative> C1 =
>Previous Close> > Cum((V/AvgV30)*(C/DJc)*((C - C1)/(H -
>L)))> > > As I said in my previous email the volume of
>big cap >stocks does not work well. I use the above
>technique on >the 100 stocks that comprise the NASDAQ-100
>(NDX). > Unfortunately it is a > cap-weighted index where
>the top 10 stocks account for >over 37.5% of the total.
>Thus it doesn't work very well. > I'm next going to try
>the NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted >index.> Hopefully that
>will prove more effective.> > I hope this answers your
>question.> > Pete> > PS My prediction that the SP-500
>will finish up today is >not looking too good. I should
>have said the SP-500 will >finish up from the open <g>.>
>> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>>grumpeeone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Wed, 23 Jan 2008 08:00:32
>>-0800Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>Tomorrow> Pete,I am curious about HOW you calculated your
>DOW >volume. Adv - Decline, cumulative, or?Dan Pete
>Lieber >wrote: > > > Ben, For years I've been trying to
>time the market via >volume. Back in 1983 I bought an IBM
>PC and Lotus 123 to >specifically do just this. I set up
>this modest >spreadsheet with the DJIA volume, hit the
>'Calc' key, and >was told I didn't have enough memory
>(460k) to complete >the calculation. I had to go out and
>buy 640K of memory >($500) just to complete the
>calculation. As it turned >out my volume indicator
>indicated nothing. Years later I >combined the individual
>volume of each of the Dow 30 >stocks into one volume
>indicator. Again the combined >volume indicator indicated
>nothing. I slowly came to the >realization that volume
>does not work with large cap >stocks. I've assumed they
>don't work because of program >trading, which buys and
>sells large cap (i.e. SP-500 >companies) stocks for other
>reasons than their intrinsic >value. For this reason when
>I trade individual stocks it >is invariably mid-cap
>stocks - stocks whose volume more >accurately reflects
>whether thay are being accumulated or >distributed. For
>the opposite reason I avoid small and >micro-cap stocks.
>Thay have too little volume. So for >years I was stuck
>with trying to time the market via >volume. The market
>followed the large caps and the >volume of the large caps
>was unreliable. Then I hit upon >the idea of tracking the
>volume of the individual >industries that make up the
>SP-500. The best industry >lists I could find were the
>Hemscott Industry Groupings >(see
>>http://www.hemscottdata.com/fin_database/na_hemscott_industry_group.html).
>> But where to find volume data for the Hemscott
>>industries? As it turned out TC-2000 software carries
>>Hemscott industries and their volume. The SPX volume
>>indicator that I occasionally send to this group
>consists >of the volume of 23 Hemscott Industry Groups or
>>Sub-Groups. These 2! 3 groups make up the nucleous of
>>the SP-500. I'm sure I can tweak the mix of industry
>>groupings and their individual weightings to make the
>>indicator better, but I have gotten around to it. I've
>>got my computer setup to where I can quickly update my
>>spreadsheet with Hemscott Industry data. Unfortunately
>>the Hemscott Industry data in TC-2000 lags the actual
>>market by 20 minutes or more. So only EOD data (> hour
>>after the close) accurately reflects the true volume.
>>Lately I've been trying to time the market by giving
>each >index component a vote (bullish = 1, bearish = -1)
>and >adding up all the individual votes. The attached
>chart >shows the results of such testing. For any of you
>who >know system testing the attached spreadsheet is not
>very >good. The equity line is not a smooth upward line.
>> Most of the equity was made in a relatively short
>period >of time. PLUS, I did no out of sample testing. So
>it is >safe to say that the attached sample is somewhat
>>curved-fitted. In its defense there is only one variable
>>and it is profitable throughout a large range. My
>>problem is what formula to use to say whether an
>>individual stock is 'bullish' or 'bearish'. I'd like to
>>hear from any of you out there if you have ideas or
>>suggestions. I'd be happy to share any of my findings
>>and/or work with any of you. Unfortunately the
>>spreadsheets are quite large (59 MB), so I'm at a loss
>at >to how to send them out. Pete > > > To:
>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx:
>>profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx: Tue, 22 Jan 2008 22:18:59
>>-0500Subject: Re: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>Tomorrow> > > > Hello Peter> this is why i stick to
>volume work> it has a lead time> sometime 1 day sometime
>a whole week> p,s> > if we open gap down because of AAPL>
>buy the dips> low will be 1258.05 cash tomorrow> Ben> >
>----- Original Message ----- >From: Pete Lieber > To:
>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx > Sent: Tuesday, January 22,
>2008 10:13 PM> Subject: [RT] One Indicator Calling Up
>Tomorrow> > My volume indicator has had a fair record in
>calling day >ahead turns in the market. The indicator
>(see attached >chart) says the SP-500 will be up
>tomorrow. On December >6 I sent out an email stating to
>go short in the '1491 - >1492 range'. As the second chart
>shows I was 3 days too >early. Oh well, you win some and
>lose some. Pete> > No virus found in this incoming
>message.Checked by AVG >Free Edition. Version: 7.5.516 /
>Virus Database: >269.19.9/1237 - Release Date: 1/22/2008
>11:04 AM> >
>
>
>
>
>
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