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And to make matters MORE interesting, the Fed Chairman
petitioned for this job behind the scenes for at least
3 years before he got it, promising those in power
that he was a staunch monetarist and believed
--- Ira <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Look at it this way. The government buys back its
> paper to increase the money supply and sells its
> paper to reduce the money supply and finally it
> prints money when it needs it. There are certain
> facts about the markets. That there is no
> government action that can change the direction of
> market forces for more than a day or two. There is
> no government action that can change the direction
> of currency valuation for more than a day or two.
> The basic economic facts remain the same as they
> were a year ago, but not acknowledged. The
> government held that inflation last year was at 2+%
> and therefore at the end of the year all subsidy
> increases based upon inflation were held at that
> rate. Now they tell us that the actual rate was 6%
> by their measure. The cost of living actually rose
> by about 16+%.
>
> There is no amount of money that the government can
> pump into this economy that will solve its current
> problems. It will take time to cure. You are
> seeing the next step in the mortgage debacle and it
> won't be over for another year as far as I can see.
> Inflation will continue until the government decides
> to start raising interest rates. After a 100 years
> the cry from the pits "beans in the teens" has come
> to pass.
>
> There is a credit crunch as far as doing business is
> concerned and adding money supply wouldn't help that
> although it might help the stock markets short term.
> The banks and investment banks that were involved
> with the bad Russian loans, the bad South American
> loans and now the bad mortgage loans need capital to
> survive. They are getting that capital from the oil
> rich states of the middle east and the exporters of
> the far east. America is being sold at bargain
> basement prices and there is nothing that we can do
> about it right now. You lose your company billions
> and walk away with a billion dollar severance
> package. That seems to be the American way now.
> the bigger the screw-up the greater the payout.
>
> Sorry that I got carried away, so I had better stop
> here. Just one man's opinion. Ira.
> Ira
> www.delta100.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Code 2
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 8:36 AM
> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] Inflation
>
>
> I would appreciate if Tim, Ira, Jim and the others
> here could shed
> some light on the Fed's liquidity auctions -- most
> recently $30
> billion in funds at below-market interest rates.
>
> It sounds like the Fed's traditional open market
> operations are not
> working like they used to to add liquidity. The
> latest chart of M3
> I've seen seems to show the year-over-year
> percentage change in money
> supply peaked in late 2007 and turning down
> slightly.
>
> The more the people in power tell us that the
> credit markets are fine
> and the crisis is abating, the more concerned I
> get.
>
> From: Timothy Morge <timothymorge@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Date: Thursday, January 3, 2008, 2:01:11 PM
> Subject: [RT] Inflation
>
> My point here would be that the self proclaimed
> savior, Greenspan, realized some time ago that
> real
> inflation was driven by the expansion of the
> broadest
> measure of the money supply [m3] and so he
> conveniently had the Fed officially stop
> publishing
> the aggregate M3 numbers. Why? Because then when
> the
> 'massaged' inflation numbers [You would die
> laughing
> if you saw exactly how the BLS and Treasury
> officials
> actually 'seasonally adjust' these and all
> economic
> numbers, by the way] come out, they would no
> longer
> have to explain how M3 could be growing at 8 pct
> and
> their 'officially massaged' CPI number showed 2
> pct
> inflation.
>
> But never fear! By law, regional Federal Reserve
> Banks
> MUST report transactions, money supply growth by
> all
> measures and several other very useful statistics.
> So
> if you actually take the time to visit ALL the
> regional Federal Reserve Bank web sites one by
> one,
> record the actual M3 numbers monthly and then do
> the
> simple math, you too can have the real money
> supply
> number and will have a very good feeling for what
> domestic inflation really is and what is likely to
> be
> 6-18 months from now.
>
> I do not buy the 'domestic inflation' has been
> lowered
> because of globalization and productivity. I am a
> pure
> monetarist and in my opinion, price is all that
> matters. If M3 is growing at 17 pct, I don't care
> about those explanations--they are fluff
> mis-information excuses put out by the Fed and the
> Treasury to help explain their massaged numbers.
>
> But as I said in an earlier post, this MY opinion.
> NO
> ONE should take anything I say as the 'truth.'
> Instead, look at all of these statements made by
> everyone, especially the government and then do
> your
> own reading and research. Then make your own
> decision
> about what makes sense and what seems like hooey.
>
> I can tell you...I have a wife and a 7 year old
> and a
> 9 year old and our grocery bills have more than
> doubled in 2 1/2 years where I live. And we do not
> live an lavish lifestyle. And gas went from $1.25
> to
> $3.00 on a good. And My insurance costs have
> nearly
> doubled over the past 3 years. To me, productivity
> and
> globalization don't change the fact that these
> numbers
> look like I am facing 20+ pct inflation on an
> annual
> basis already. And just wait until our current Fed
> Chairman starts raising rates...
>
> Tim Morge
>
> www.marketgeometry.com
> --- Jim White <jwhite43@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Years ago, after the rapid rise in inflation and
> > interest rates put my development company out of
> > business, I developed an equation to forecast
> > interest rates based on the rate of increase in
> > money supply and the rate of increase in GNP.
> > I will have to review the formula but I believe
> it
> > was
> > Inflation rate = Rate of money supply growth -
> (rate
> > of GNP growth + 3%). The effects of surplus
> money
> > supply are felt as price increases with a lag of
> > about 6 months.
> > Today's conditions are somewhat different due to
> the
> > globalization of business and the rapid rise in
> > productivity due to technology and have resulted
> in
> > a slowing of domestic inflation. Never the less,
> I
> > believe there will be a reckoning and a return
> to
> > more sustainable conditions but this time it
> will be
> > world wide.
> > Jim White
> > Pivot Research & Trading Co.
> > PivotTrader.com
>
>
>
>
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