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Re: [RT] 20 week cycle

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History says October low.
----- Original Message -----
From: Clyde Lee
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 6:47 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 20 week cycle

OK, maybe you have a good basis for this concept but the very
simple application of 2 cycles says we should see down price
movements into October.
 
I know, this may be a stupid approach but sometimes KISS is
a valid way of looking at things.
 
See the attached.
 
Information on this very simple concept can be found at:
 
Clyde
----- Original Message -----
From: Joe Duffy
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 08:00 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 20 week cycle

It seems everyone is so quick to embrace this two day old downtrend like its the start of something big. All the more reason 1255 seems like it has to be exceeded.
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 8:12 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 20 week cycle

He is predicting a high based upon a mid cycle?  What about translation.  On the weekly chart I have a price objective of 1244 which has been hit and should offer resistance and a retracement, but nothing at this time indicates 1190 or 1158 in my work.  There is a short term target of 1451 and a retracement target of 1403 and a target on the 8 year cycle of 1880.  Right now there is nothing that has happened to void these up moves.  Can you trade the retracements profitably? yes.  But never forget where you are.  What happens if there is further translation of the high?
 
Guessing at tops and bottoms can lead to financial disaster.  As a wise man once said, " I will give away the first 10% and the last 10% of a move, just give me the 80% in the middle". 
 
Will it get to any of these targets?  Time will tell, but until I get a sell signal, every downside trade is contra trend on the weekly chart.  Now the other time frames might show a different picture and you have to understand how to integrate the various time frames.
 
Once again, one mans thoughts.  Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: ChasW
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 4:49 PM
Subject: [RT] 20 week cycle

from walterbressert.com
 
The 4-year cycle in the stock market is due to top. In the S&P Index, that 4-year cycle top could be occurring now as the 20-week cycle tops at 1245 the week of 7/29. Expect a decline into the 20-week cycle bottom at the 50% retracement level at 1190. A Friday close below 1190 would indicate that prices could drop to the 78.6% retracement level at 1158. It would not be unusual for prices to make a 20-week cycle bottom; then move up and fail to exceed the recent high at 1245. That failure pattern would be a strong indicator that the 20-week cycle top is in place and the 4-year cycle top is most likely also in place. The 20-week cycle is most likely to bottom the week of 8/19 thru 9/16

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