----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005
8:12 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] 20 week cycle
He is predicting a high based upon a mid
cycle? What about translation. On the weekly chart I have a
price objective of 1244 which has been hit and should offer resistance and a
retracement, but nothing at this time indicates 1190 or 1158 in my
work. There is a short term target of 1451 and a retracement target of
1403 and a target on the 8 year cycle of 1880. Right now there is
nothing that has happened to void these up moves. Can you trade the
retracements profitably? yes. But never forget where you are.
What happens if there is further translation of the high?
Guessing at tops and bottoms can lead to
financial disaster. As a wise man once said, " I will give away the
first 10% and the last 10% of a move, just give me the 80% in the
middle".
Will it get to any of these targets? Time
will tell, but until I get a sell signal, every downside trade is contra
trend on the weekly chart. Now the other time frames might show a
different picture and you have to understand how to integrate the various
time frames.
Once again, one mans thoughts. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005
4:49 PM
Subject: [RT] 20 week cycle
from walterbressert.com
The 4-year cycle in the stock market is due
to top. In the S&P Index, that 4-year cycle top could be occurring now
as the 20-week cycle tops at 1245 the week of 7/29. Expect a decline into
the 20-week cycle bottom at the 50% retracement level at 1190. A Friday
close below 1190 would indicate that prices could drop to the 78.6%
retracement level at 1158. It would not be unusual for prices to make a
20-week cycle bottom; then move up and fail to exceed the recent high at
1245. That failure pattern would be a strong indicator that the 20-week
cycle top is in place and the 4-year cycle top is most likely also in
place. The 20-week cycle is most likely to bottom the week of 8/19 thru
9/16
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