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He is predicting a high based upon a mid
cycle? What about translation. On the weekly chart I have a price
objective of 1244 which has been hit and should offer resistance and a
retracement, but nothing at this time indicates 1190 or 1158 in my work.
There is a short term target of 1451 and a retracement target of 1403 and a
target on the 8 year cycle of 1880. Right now there is nothing that has
happened to void these up moves. Can you trade the retracements
profitably? yes. But never forget where you are. What happens if
there is further translation of the high?
Guessing at tops and bottoms can lead to financial
disaster. As a wise man once said, " I will give away the first 10% and
the last 10% of a move, just give me the 80% in the middle".
Will it get to any of these targets? Time
will tell, but until I get a sell signal, every downside trade is contra trend
on the weekly chart. Now the other time frames might show a different
picture and you have to understand how to integrate the various time frames.
Once again, one mans thoughts. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, September 14, 2005 4:49
PM
Subject: [RT] 20 week cycle
from walterbressert.com
The 4-year cycle in the stock market is due to
top. In the S&P Index, that 4-year cycle top could be occurring now as the
20-week cycle tops at 1245 the week of 7/29. Expect a decline into the 20-week
cycle bottom at the 50% retracement level at 1190. A Friday close below 1190
would indicate that prices could drop to the 78.6% retracement level at 1158.
It would not be unusual for prices to make a 20-week cycle bottom; then move
up and fail to exceed the recent high at 1245. That failure pattern would be a
strong indicator that the 20-week cycle top is in place and the 4-year cycle
top is most likely also in place. The 20-week cycle is most likely to bottom
the week of 8/19 thru
9/16
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