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I agree that technically speaking, we are due for a correction.
However, I think fundamentally, we are still in good shape and even with
the rise we've had, there is a ton of money still on the side. I am
currently very cautious with way too many happy campers out there
shouting "higher, higher" and I've pulled back to 70% cash now
watching things develop. From my posts, one might think I' am never
bearish but there were many times in 2000 - 2003 when I was fully
margined and totally short the markets. I haven't used any borrowed
money since and the one short I did this past month cost me $300 after I
shorted 1K of RGC before they reported.. Movie goers are opting for DVD's
and this dog had a PE of 36 but they announced a share buy back and I had
to get flushed out fast. Anyway, I'm rambling .. I'm still in
bio-techs, natural gas and TWX and lurking. :)
Good luck to all next week,
Bob
At 03:10 PM 7/29/2005 -0600, you wrote:
I do, at times trade off extremes
and those are often my most profitable trades. I had a sitting order to
short 1247.50 with additional orders at higher price levels. The order at
1247.50 was filled Thursday afternoon and took 3 ticks of heat before it
reversed in my favor. SPX put in a thrust reversal today and I am
carrying for the weekend. Initial target is 1230+-. I believe that the
correction has started and will re-evaluate the remaining standing orders
and downside targets this weekend.
Earl
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: mr.ira
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 8:38 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
- This is where we differ and our trading styles show our conflicting approach. It appears that you are trading off of extremes that are produced by your charts and I would trade when price has hit my entry price. We seem to both come up with similar answers. You scale in and I would trade the max that my money management would allow. Both have stops. My stop tells me I am wrong. I have no idea how you create your stop.
-
- Right now I would be short with an entry price of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at 10670. Stop at 10725. All specific numbers, these are rounded, with indicator confirmation.
-
- do these numbers fit your scenario?
-
- Ira.
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: Ben
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 6:37 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
- Hello Ira
- this is why i put only 25% of the position and always has an exit point which is a stop loss
- Ben
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: mr.ira
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 1:17 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
- So far so good. Ben you are a couple of days early for a real short I believe. We are at that 10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts should occur.
-
- Once again one mans opinion, Ira.
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: mr.ira
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 11:22 AM
- Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook
- Congratulations on a great set of charts. The interesting thing is that different people look at the same chart and see different things. Using the daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250 points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of over 1000 points. That leaves a huge stop. For it to even begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be support at 10,000, that would make for part of the move, 600 points +/-.
-
- ON the up side I have a very high price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and 11,280.
-
- There are resistance levels at 10,650, 10,725 and 10,960. These resistance levels are interim price objectives and retracements should occur from these levels. It is the magnitude of the retracement that will make the difference as to whether price continues up or goes down to test previous levels as support.
-
- Like your work Ben.
-
- Just a little different input using different data. Ira.
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: Ben
- To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; e-mini_traders_anon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 10:31 AM
- Subject: [RT] market outlook
- The Dow Industrial Average has broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling (signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would signal further hesitancy.
- The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750. There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action between these levels before there is a clear breakout.
- Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high, without crossing below zero, that would be a further bull signal.
- Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its May high.
- The Nasdaq Composite is testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the high of the January to March consolidation) would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted, signaling a test of support at 1900.
- The market appears to have more confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.
- The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.
- Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would confirm.
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