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Re: [RT] in search of the grail

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The Holy Grail for one person may be a disaster for another.  It all depends on ones personality what works and what doesn't.  It also depends if the trader is one side of the brain dominant.  Is he all numbers or all visual or is he able to combine the two for a certain balance.  You can trade options and be totally mathematical with absolutely no worry about the direction of the underlying.  One can be totally visual and look at a chart with a couple simple indicators and be very successful. 
 
It is up to the individual trader to find his strengths and weaknesses and then develop a system that takes advantage of his strengths.  Everything that you need to be successful has already been discovered.  Your job is to put together the right pieces for you.  Don't try and reinvent the wheel.
 
There are those that want a totally mechanical system so that if they lose money it is someone else's fault.  I did what it told me and it was wrong.  The corporate blame game in action in the markets.  There are those who put on a position and then let a profit go to a loss because they are afraid that they might miss something or leave something on the table.  There are others that put on a position and it immediately goes bad and they stay with it making every excuse in the book to defend their decision and lose more and more money. 
 
So as the saying goes, "know thyself".   Have a good week.  Ira.
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 7:18 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] in search of the grail

John-
 
FWIW; I wrestled with trying to do the same thing with the proposition of using some predictive model which would tell me
if the market was going to either be up or down the next day.  My experiences unfortunately matched your results.  My conclusion; and this was written over 100 years ago by Dow; is that over the short term; prices are random.  Now; that
doesn't mean that there are not traders who have been able to solve this puzzle; and have developed a trading strategy with
a consistent statistical edge; but we will never discover the specific details.  I think there was one guy in the original
market wizards book who claimed to have an amazingly successful track record short term trading.  Of course there were
no specifics in the article; only that he used custom indicators; even an indicator on an indicator.  Unfortunately; that doesn't
help us any.  I would point out that it appears you are working with very hi-tech tools and my methods were much more
crude and unsophisticated than your methods.  I remain baffled but curious.
 
Chas
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 9:05 AM
Subject: [RT] in search of the grail

Just for amusement, I have been trying to see if I can guess the market close.  Not the exact price, just will it close higher or lower than yesterday.  As I sit here with my three computers, ten monitors, and several years experience trading for a living, I am amazed that I cannot seem to do it with any consistency.  I figure it's about a fifty-fifty shot and by trying everything I can think of, I might get as high as fifty three percent.  I've been using the E-mini close to try it. Honestly, I figured with my experience and technology I would be able to get it right in the high seventy percent range.

 

 

 

Anybody on the list care to try it, post their results, and give some clues as to how they do it?

 

 

 

Prosper

 

 

 

John Gallagher

 


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