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I cannot recall the exact source, but in some of my reading regarding the
persistence of trends, the author indicated that a success rate quite a bit
better than 50 percent can be achieved by simply guessing that the close
tommorow is going to do the same thing it did today. In other words, if the
close is up today, guess that it will be up tommorow and you will be correct
more than half the time because prices trend.
Dan
>From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: Re: [RT] in search of the grail
>Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2005 13:29:40 -0600
>
>Using an approach in which a Fourier analysis is made of the last
>n number of cycles of a given period and then from that information
>computing if the next days market (measured by the close to close)
>is up or down we get some better figures:
>
>
>If we take a combination of a 3 bar cycle and a 5 bar cycle, using
>only one cycle back to determine phase and amplitude, we are able
>to predict the direction of the next close with a 66.98% accuracy.
>
>Two cycle analysis is only 58.05%
>
>Using a 3+5+8 cycle with one cycle evaluation results in 65.60%
>That drops to 56.16% if we use three cycle evaluation.
>
>And finally with a 3+4+5+6 period cycles with one cycle evaluation
>we achieve a 68.37% accuracy.
>
>Once we pass a 7 period cycle, the performance deteriorates.
>
>Clyde
>
>
>- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>Clyde Lee phone: 713.783.9540
>SYTECH Corporation
>7910 Westglen, Suite 105
>Houston, TX 77063 fax: 713.783.1092
>WebSite: www.theswingmachine.com
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: JSGallagher
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 9:05 AM
> Subject: [RT] in search of the grail
>
>
> Just for amusement, I have been trying to see if I can guess the market
>close. Not the exact price, just will it close higher or lower than
>yesterday. As I sit here with my three computers, ten monitors, and
>several years experience trading for a living, I am amazed that I cannot
>seem to do it with any consistency. I figure it's about a fifty-fifty shot
>and by trying everything I can think of, I might get as high as fifty three
>percent. I've been using the E-mini close to try it. Honestly, I figured
>with my experience and technology I would be able to get it right in the
>high seventy percent range.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Anybody on the list care to try it, post their results, and give some
>clues as to how they do it?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Prosper
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> John Gallagher
>
>
>
>
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