Re: [RT] in search of the grail

["Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>]

John-

 

FWIW; I wrestled with trying to do the same thing with the proposition of using some predictive model which would tell me

if the market was going to either be up or down the next day.  My experiences unfortunately matched your results.  My conclusion; and this was written over 100 years ago by Dow; is that over the short term; prices are random.  Now; that

doesn't mean that there are not traders who have been able to solve this puzzle; and have developed a trading strategy with

a consistent statistical edge; but we will never discover the specific details.  I think there was one guy in the original

market wizards book who claimed to have an amazingly successful track record short term trading.  Of course there were

no specifics in the article; only that he used custom indicators; even an indicator on an indicator.  Unfortunately; that doesn't

help us any.  I would point out that it appears you are working with very hi-tech tools and my methods were much more

crude and unsophisticated than your methods.  I remain baffled but curious.

 

Chas

 

----- Original Message -----

From: JSGallagher

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 9:05 AM

Subject: [RT] in search of the grail

Just for amusement, I have been trying to see if I can guess the market close.  Not the exact price, just will it close higher or lower than yesterday.  As I sit here with my three computers, ten monitors, and several years experience trading for a living, I am amazed that I cannot seem to do it with any consistency.  I figure it's about a fifty-fifty shot and by trying everything I can think of, I might get as high as fifty three percent.  I've been using the E-mini close to try it. Honestly, I figured with my experience and technology I would be able to get it right in the high seventy percent range.

 

 

 

Anybody on the list care to try it, post their results, and give some clues as to how they do it?

 

 

 

Prosper

 

 

 

John Gallagher

 

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