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Using an approach in which a Fourier analysis is
made of the last
n number of cycles of a given period and then from
that information
computing if the next days market (measured by the
close to close)
is up or down we get some better
figures:
If we take a combination of a 3 bar cycle and a 5
bar cycle, using
only one cycle back to determine phase and
amplitude, we are able
to predict the direction of the next close with a
66.98% accuracy.
Two cycle analysis is only 58.05%
Using a 3+5+8 cycle with one cycle evaluation
results in 65.60%
That drops to 56.16% if we use three cycle
evaluation.
And finally with a 3+4+5+6 period cycles with one
cycle evaluation
we achieve a 68.37% accuracy.
Once we pass a 7 period cycle, the performance
deteriorates.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- Clyde
Lee
phone: 713.783.9540 SYTECH Corporation 7910 Westglen, Suite
105 Houston, TX 77063 fax:
713.783.1092 WebSite: www.theswingmachine.com
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, March 01, 2005 9:05
AM
Subject: [RT] in search of the
grail
Just for amusement, I have
been trying to see if I can guess the market close. Not the exact price,
just will it close higher or lower than yesterday. As I sit here with my
three computers, ten monitors, and several years experience trading for a
living, I am amazed that I cannot seem to do it with any consistency. I
figure it's about a fifty-fifty shot and by trying everything I can think of,
I might get as high as fifty three percent. I've been using the E-mini
close to try it. Honestly, I figured with my experience and technology I would
be able to get it right in the high seventy percent range.
Anybody on the list care
to try it, post their results, and give some clues as to how they do
it?
Prosper
John Gallagher
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