|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 12:15
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
Well, you guys
should probably read my post in <A
href="">www.elitetrader.com , in the economic
forum where I chastise Mr. Bush and/or congress for:
1) wildly
increasing the size and scope of government instead of creating a lean and
effective one.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT
color=#000000>Both parties do this.....but do you think someone with an
identical voting record to ted kennedy would be better?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
2) adding
burdensome new regulations that divert business resources from innovation and
research to accounting and legal busywork.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>(Sarbanes-Oxley, Patriot Act)
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Agree on S-O, not on Patriot
Act
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
3) bankrupting
future generations with fiscal policies of deficit spending...again diverting
money towards less productive means.
4) bankrupting
futures generations with an expensive, never-ending war.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Tommy Franks said it
best....it's a multiple choice question: Fight them here or fight them over
there. Unless you believe we could subpoena them to death, win
their hearts and minds or that 9/11 was a one-time event?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
5) lack of a
effective energy policy that would provide incentives for energy usage
efficiency as well as energy production incentives.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Need to check your facts on
this one....Senate has blocked their plan at every turn, and guess what party
and for what reasons?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
As far as
averting a 1930 depression, there is still plenty of time for
that...
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Yep
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
hey, this is
just my opinion....no need for a "jihad" here.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff> From: Bob
[mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 4:32
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Fwd: Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil
Yes, I'd love to hear that too.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:19
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update - $18 crude oil
Mark,
Since you brought it up,
perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style
depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a
disastrous track record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
7:29 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only
in conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we
see that $18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card
is China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia
has already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07,
2004 2:52 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could
see it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our
life time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
10:47 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in
our lifetime ?> -----Original Message----->
From: topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August
07, 2004 10:32 AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>>
--- In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...>
wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG#
26884, May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9
calculations say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055
this week and then rally to or above the 1200>
level.>> The market has completed the three peaks part
of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house
formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the
S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline.
Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed
house part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends>
what Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations
using> Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance
began in March> 2003 and is likely to last into the second
half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the typical duration of
a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not last into
the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict will
be resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the
pattern I have been expecting for the past year.> In this
pattern the March top is iself only the first peak of a>
larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004;
in> this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early
November 2004> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third
peak (January 2005 ?) will> be lower than the second. After
the third peak in January 2005 the> separating decline will
carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months> from the
third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed>
house rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of
2005.>> The second resolution is becoming more and
more likely given the> degree of pessism I currently think I
see in public investment> perceptions. In this scenario, the
market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of 2005, then goes
into a 6 month trading range (something like> March-September
2000) and then begins a new bear market.>> In either
scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through>
most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the
850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I said
that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103
level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the
market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a
rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a
12> week span.>> I now think that this bond
rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds> moving up a bit
more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of> 111-26
yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to
109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday
and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First
they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will
probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and
that may well be the bear market low for> bonds. The
notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes
will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to
flatten> substantially.>> I thought crude would
top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got> was a break to
$35. I now think that the bull market high will occur> in the
$45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down
to> $18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded
message --->>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups
Links>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|