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But, just think of what may have happened if
he had of done the exact opposite after the bubble and of course
9/11.
I myself may not like some of the things he did,
but looking back am sure glad he did most of them.
I hate to think of how things would have been
with the gore plan in place.
As for the 1930 situation. The next
president may have to deal with that or at least help keep us from
that. Maybe the congress can help us with that.
So, yes, there is still time.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 1:15
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
Well, you guys
should probably read my post in <A
href="">www.elitetrader.com , in the economic
forum where I chastise Mr. Bush and/or congress for:
1) wildly
increasing the size and scope of government instead of creating a lean and
effective one.
2) adding
burdensome new regulations that divert business resources from innovation and
research to accounting and legal busywork.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>(Sarbanes-Oxley, Patriot Act)
3) bankrupting
future generations with fiscal policies of deficit spending...again diverting
money towards less productive means.
4) bankrupting
futures generations with an expensive, never-ending war.
5) lack of a
effective energy policy that would provide incentives for energy usage
efficiency as well as energy production incentives.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
As far as
averting a 1930 depression, there is still plenty of time for
that...
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
hey, this is
just my opinion....no need for a "jihad" here.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff> From: Bob
[mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 4:32
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Fwd: Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil
Yes, I'd love to hear that too.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:19
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update - $18 crude oil
Mark,
Since you brought it up,
perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style
depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a
disastrous track record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
7:29 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only
in conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we
see that $18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card
is China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia
has already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07,
2004 2:52 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could
see it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our
life time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
10:47 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in
our lifetime ?> -----Original Message----->
From: topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August
07, 2004 10:32 AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>>
--- In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...>
wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG#
26884, May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9
calculations say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055
this week and then rally to or above the 1200>
level.>> The market has completed the three peaks part
of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house
formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the
S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline.
Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed
house part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends>
what Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations
using> Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance
began in March> 2003 and is likely to last into the second
half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the typical duration of
a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not last into
the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict will
be resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the
pattern I have been expecting for the past year.> In this
pattern the March top is iself only the first peak of a>
larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of 2004;
in> this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early
November 2004> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third
peak (January 2005 ?) will> be lower than the second. After
the third peak in January 2005 the> separating decline will
carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months> from the
third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed>
house rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of
2005.>> The second resolution is becoming more and
more likely given the> degree of pessism I currently think I
see in public investment> perceptions. In this scenario, the
market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of 2005, then goes
into a 6 month trading range (something like> March-September
2000) and then begins a new bear market.>> In either
scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through>
most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the
850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I said
that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103
level in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the
market up no more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a
rally that has carried the market up nearly nine points over a
12> week span.>> I now think that this bond
rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds> moving up a bit
more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high of> 111-26
yesterday) but first the market will probably drop to
109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level yesterday
and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First
they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will
probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and
that may well be the bear market low for> bonds. The
notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes
will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to
flatten> substantially.>> I thought crude would
top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got> was a break to
$35. I now think that the bull market high will occur> in the
$45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down
to> $18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded
message --->>>>>>>
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