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Well, you guys
should probably read my post in <A
href="">www.elitetrader.com , in the economic
forum where I chastise Mr. Bush and/or congress for:
1) wildly
increasing the size and scope of government instead of creating a lean and
effective one.
2) adding
burdensome new regulations that divert business resources from innovation and
research to accounting and legal busywork.
(Sarbanes-Oxley,
Patriot Act)
3) bankrupting
future generations with fiscal policies of deficit spending...again diverting
money towards less productive means.
4) bankrupting
futures generations with an expensive, never-ending war.
5) lack of a
effective energy policy that would provide incentives for energy usage
efficiency as well as energy production incentives.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
As far as
averting a 1930 depression, there is still plenty of time for
that...
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
hey, this is just
my opinion....no need for a "jihad" here.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----<FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff> From: Bob
[mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 4:32
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Fwd:
Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil
Yes, I'd love to hear that too.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Norman
Winski
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:19
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
Mark,
Since you brought it up,
perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style
depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a
disastrous track record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:29
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only
in conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we see
that $18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card
is China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia has
already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
2:52 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could
see it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our
life time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004
10:47 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in
our lifetime ?> -----Original Message----->
From: topos8 [mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August
07, 2004 10:32 AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> ---
In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...>
wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG#
26884, May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9
calculations say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055
this week and then rally to or above the 1200>
level.>> The market has completed the three peaks part
of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house
formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the
S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline.
Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed house
part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends> what
Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations using>
Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance began in
March> 2003 and is likely to last into the second half of 2005.
Even an 8> month rally (the typical duration of a "domed house"
rally) from a> low now would not last into the second half of
2005.>> I think this conflict will be resolved in one of
two ways.>> The first way is the pattern I have been
expecting for the past year.> In this pattern the March top is
iself only the first peak of a> larger three peaks formation
that lasts through the end of 2004; in> this scenario the
second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004> and about
1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?) will>
be lower than the second. After the third peak in January 2005
the> separating decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P and
last 1-3 months> from the third peak. After the 1075 low we
then will see a domed> house rally that carries the S&P up
to 1350 in the fall of 2005.>> The second resolution is
becoming more and more likely given the> degree of pessism I
currently think I see in public investment> perceptions. In
this scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of
2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like>
March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear
market.>> In either scenario I expect the next bear
market to extend through> most of 2006 and carry the S&P
from about 1350 down into the 850-950> range.>>
In my May 13 message I said that the bonds were about to begin
a> rally from the 103 level in the futures that would last 4-8
weeks and> carry the market up no more that 6 points. In the
event we have seen> a rally that has carried the market up
nearly nine points over a 12> week span.>> I now
think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds>
moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high
of> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will probably drop
to 109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level
yesterday and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16.
First they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg
will probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and
that may well be the bear market low for> bonds. The
notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes
will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to flatten>
substantially.>> I thought crude would top in the $41-42
range in May but all we got> was a break to $35. I now think
that the bull market high will occur> in the $45-47 range and
that the next bear market will carry down to>
$18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded message
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