|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
IMHO only in
conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we see that $18
price.
But given Japan's
and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card is
China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia has
already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 2:52
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Fwd:
Bond and S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could see it
again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our life time.
One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:47
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in our
lifetime ?> -----Original Message-----> From: topos8
[mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32
AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> --- In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...> wrote:> I
last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 26884, May 13,
2004.>> At the moment my square of 9 calculations say that the
S&P's will> make a low at 1055 this week and then rally to or
above the 1200> level.>> The market has completed the
three peaks part of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed
house formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the
S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline. Normally
the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed house part of the
pattern ends the bull market and also ends> what Lindsay called a
basic advance. However, my calculations using> Linday's guidelines
say that the current basic advance began in March> 2003 and is likely
to last into the second half of 2005. Even an 8> month rally (the
typical duration of a "domed house" rally) from a> low now would not
last into the second half of 2005.>> I think this conflict
will be resolved in one of two ways.>> The first way is the
pattern I have been expecting for the past year.> In this pattern the
March top is iself only the first peak of a> larger three peaks
formation that lasts through the end of 2004; in> this scenario the
second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004> and about 1250 in
the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?) will> be lower than
the second. After the third peak in January 2005 the> separating
decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P and last 1-3 months> from
the third peak. After the 1075 low we then will see a domed> house
rally that carries the S&P up to 1350 in the fall of
2005.>> The second resolution is becoming more and more likely
given the> degree of pessism I currently think I see in public
investment> perceptions. In this scenario, the market rallies to 1350
in April-> June of 2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range
(something like> March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear
market.>> In either scenario I expect the next bear market to
extend through> most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350
down into the 850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I
said that the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103 level
in the futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the market up no
more that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a rally that has
carried the market up nearly nine points over a 12> week
span.>> I now think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can
see the bonds> moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16
range(vs. a high of> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will
probably drop to 109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level
yesterday and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16. First
they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will
probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and that may
well be the bear market low for> bonds. The notes will drop to
104 but I think lower lows for the> notes will evntually be seen as
the yield curve continues to flatten> substantially.>>
I thought crude would top in the $41-42 range in May but all we got>
was a break to $35. I now think that the bull market high will occur>
in the $45-47 range and that the next bear market will carry down to>
$18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded message
--->>>>>>> Yahoo! Groups
Links>>>>>>
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|