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DG,
I am talking about the closest thing to the
2000 Stock Market Bubble top was 1929. Had Greenspan
and the Bush administration not engaged in a
campaign of aggressive spending and massive fiscal
expansion, it is very likely we would have had a
1930s style depression. In contrast to Bush and Greenspan, at the 1929
top, the Fed and the Hoover administration pursued a balanced budget policy and
relatively tight fiscal policy. Of course, there are no free rides.
The stimulative policy of Bush and Greenspan traded a sharp economic downtown in
exchange for time. It will take many years to pay off
the debt incurred, which will no doubt somewhat
hamper future economic growth. However, given the probable outcomes, that
was the lesser of the two evils when we consider the possibility for a 1930s
style depression or a 1990s stuck in a rut Japanese style economy.
Regards,
Norman
Regards,
Norman
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<DIV
>From:
Dan
Goncharoff
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 9:24
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
I am quite sure I don't understand your question.The
depression of the 1930s was caused by raised tariffs that choked off world
trade -- a form of anti-globalization in extremis. There was no threat
of that recently, and therefore no lurking depression to avert.I also
do not understand the phrase "major generational bubble collapse". I know tech
stocks collapsed, but I don;t see where that is "generational". Housing, which
is certainly generational, hasn't collapsed. What are you really talking
about?RegardsDanGNorman Winski wrote:
Mark,
Since you brought it up,
perhaps you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style
depression coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a
disastrous track record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>-----
Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
<DIV
>To:
<A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<DIV
>Sent:
Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:29 PM
<DIV
>Subject:
RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only
in conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we see
that $18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card
is China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia has
already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira [<A
class=moz-txt-link-freetext
href="">mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Saturday, August 07, 2004 2:52 PMTo: <A
class=moz-txt-link-abbreviated
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could
see it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our
life time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>-----
Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
<DIV
>To:
<A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<DIV
>Sent:
Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:47 AM
<DIV
>Subject:
RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in
our lifetime ?> -----Original Message----->
From: topos8 [<A class=moz-txt-link-freetext
href="">mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent:
Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32 AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> ---
In <A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...>
wrote:> I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG#
26884, May 13, 2004.>> At the moment my square of 9
calculations say that the S&P's will> make a low at 1055
this week and then rally to or above the 1200>
level.>> The market has completed the three peaks part
of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a domed house
formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks in the
S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline.
Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed house
part of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends> what
Lindsay called a basic advance. However, my calculations using>
Linday's guidelines say that the current basic advance began in
March> 2003 and is likely to last into the second half of 2005.
Even an 8> month rally (the typical duration of a "domed house"
rally) from a> low now would not last into the second half of
2005.>> I think this conflict will be resolved in one of
two ways.>> The first way is the pattern I have been
expecting for the past year.> In this pattern the March top is
iself only the first peak of a> larger three peaks formation
that lasts through the end of 2004; in> this scenario the
second peak still lies ahead (early November 2004> and about
1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak (January 2005 ?) will>
be lower than the second. After the third peak in January 2005
the> separating decline will carry to 1075 in the S&P and
last 1-3 months> from the third peak. After the 1075 low we
then will see a domed> house rally that carries the S&P up
to 1350 in the fall of 2005.>> The second resolution is
becoming more and more likely given the> degree of pessism I
currently think I see in public investment> perceptions. In
this scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of
2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like>
March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear
market.>> In either scenario I expect the next bear
market to extend through> most of 2006 and carry the S&P
from about 1350 down into the 850-950> range.>>
In my May 13 message I said that the bonds were about to begin
a> rally from the 103 level in the futures that would last 4-8
weeks and> carry the market up no more that 6 points. In the
event we have seen> a rally that has carried the market up
nearly nine points over a 12> week span.>> I now
think that this bond rally is nearly over. I can see the bonds>
moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16 range(vs. a high
of> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will probably drop
to 109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10 level
yesterday and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16.
First they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg
will probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and
that may well be the bear market low for> bonds. The
notes will drop to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes
will evntually be seen as the yield curve continues to flatten>
substantially.>> I thought crude would top in the $41-42
range in May but all we got> was a break to $35. I now think
that the bull market high will occur> in the $45-47 range and
that the next bear market will carry down to>
$18.>> Carl> --- End forwarded message
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