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Mark,
Since you brought it up, perhaps
you could elaborate on why you think Bush averting a 1930s style depression
coming off a major generational bubble collapse represents a disastrous track
record?
Thanks,
Norman
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 7:29
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P
update - $18 crude oil
IMHO only in
conjunction with a severe worldwide recession or depression will we see that
$18 price.
But given
Japan's and Bush's disasterous economic track record, it's a
possibility.
Wild card is
China...will they make dumb policy decisions ?
Russia has
already proven it's stupidity.
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: mr.ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 2:52
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
Fwd: Bond and S&P update
We saw it several years back and we could see
it again. It is $3 oil that we will never see again in our life
time. One can thank Henry Kissinger for that one.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:47
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: Bond and
S&P update
Bear market $18 crude oil....will we see that in our
lifetime ?> -----Original Message-----> From: topos8
[mailto:topos8@xxxxxxx]> Sent: Saturday, August 07, 2004 10:32
AM> To: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Fwd: Bond and S&P update>>> --- In
<A
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"topos8" <topos8@x...> wrote:>
I last updated my bond and stock forecasts in GG# 26884, May 13,
2004.>> At the moment my square of 9 calculations say that
the S&P's will> make a low at 1055 this week and then rally to
or above the 1200> level.>> The market has completed
the three peaks part of a George Lindsay> style, "three peaks and a
domed house formation" (March, April and> June are the three peaks
in the S&P) and the current break is the> separating decline.
Normally the subsequent rally that traces out the> domed house part
of the pattern ends the bull market and also ends> what Lindsay
called a basic advance. However, my calculations using> Linday's
guidelines say that the current basic advance began in March> 2003
and is likely to last into the second half of 2005. Even an 8>
month rally (the typical duration of a "domed house" rally) from a>
low now would not last into the second half of 2005.>> I
think this conflict will be resolved in one of two ways.>>
The first way is the pattern I have been expecting for the past
year.> In this pattern the March top is iself only the first peak
of a> larger three peaks formation that lasts through the end of
2004; in> this scenario the second peak still lies ahead (early
November 2004> and about 1250 in the S&P?) and the third peak
(January 2005 ?) will> be lower than the second. After the third
peak in January 2005 the> separating decline will carry to 1075 in
the S&P and last 1-3 months> from the third peak. After the
1075 low we then will see a domed> house rally that carries the
S&P up to 1350 in the fall of 2005.>> The second
resolution is becoming more and more likely given the> degree of
pessism I currently think I see in public investment> perceptions.
In this scenario, the market rallies to 1350 in April-> June of
2005, then goes into a 6 month trading range (something like>
March-September 2000) and then begins a new bear market.>>
In either scenario I expect the next bear market to extend through>
most of 2006 and carry the S&P from about 1350 down into the
850-950> range.>> In my May 13 message I said that
the bonds were about to begin a> rally from the 103 level in the
futures that would last 4-8 weeks and> carry the market up no more
that 6 points. In the event we have seen> a rally that has carried
the market up nearly nine points over a 12> week
span.>> I now think that this bond rally is nearly over. I
can see the bonds> moving up a bit more into the 112-00 to 112-16
range(vs. a high of> 111-26 yesterday) but first the market will
probably drop to 109-08.> The 10 year notes reached the 113-10
level yesterday and have the> potential to get to get up to 114-16.
First they will probably drop> to 111-16. The next big downleg will
probably carry the bonds down> into the 100-102 range and that may
well be the bear market low for> bonds. The notes will drop
to 104 but I think lower lows for the> notes will evntually be seen
as the yield curve continues to flatten>
substantially.>> I thought crude would top in the $41-42
range in May but all we got> was a break to $35. I now think that
the bull market high will occur> in the $45-47 range and that the
next bear market will carry down to> $18.>>
Carl> --- End forwarded message
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