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while on the last note, here is the SPX Hurst daily attached (a
modified version, slightly detrended). still pointing down
right now
I think the big test is whether we will hold 1088 on a correction lower. at
some point this year we should see a 8-12% correction, as we are now 17-18
months into the four year cycle, and a 'first phase' low is soon due.
this usually comes in 17-21 months, with none coming past the 21 month
region. average decline for this fourth phase is in the 8-12% region. In fact,
the lowest % correction with the four year first phase has been 8%.
we could also hold 1088 here, then shoot back up to 1174 in May, and THEN
correct that 8-12% down in the summer months. that is another viable scenario,
and one that I tend to lean towards
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">profitok
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, March 14, 2004 7:59
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX 60 Min
Hello Jim
Do you fell we are out of the woods, or this is the beginning of a 10%
correction?
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Jim
Curry
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 11:36
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX 60 Min
Hey Joe,
thanks for the word. you could be correct about the bigger trend
chaging, though I do still have an outstanding upside target to 1176 SPX
CASH, good through late-April. This target is valid as long as my main trend
indicator does not turn down - and it looks like we might need to see an SPX
close below 1100 for that to occur. closing below it could target the
1030's, if seen
also, today is March 10, which is a short-term Bradley turn date (plus
or minus 2 days), which may try and make some form of low. Whether it holds
or not is the question mark.
one additional note is that the month of March in election year has
typically fallen 1.4% to 2.1% from the February closing price, in fact 80%
of these have done so going back over 40 years; the same here would be
1120-1128 SPX CASH, which we have obviously said and done. <FONT
face="Frutiger 45 Light">One thing that I thought
interesting was that 80% of these March intra-month drops held at in the
2.6% range or lower. A 2.6% drop from the February 1144 close would be
1115 SPX CASH - which also just happens to be the January swing bottom -
making this number key I think in the coming days.
Obviously if the larger trend is flipping back to bearish then we can
throw much of the above out the window. Short-term the 60 min channel chart
is attached, which is in agreement with Clyde's post from earlier (always
good to see another Hurst chart)
at any rate, a trip back to the 10 and 20 day averages appears to be in
the cards in the coming days, in the 1140's - and we will see what happens
after that.
Jim
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Joe
Duffy
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 3:14
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX 60 Min
Hey Everyone.... if your interested in Hurst or just in
the direction of markets, Jim does an excellent job covering the stock
indexes in his market letter.
Just to give an alternative view though Jim, I think the
market needs some sort of fresh news to get going again. There is a lot of
insider selling, mutual fund managers taking some money off the table
(despite good fund inflows), and too many new issues. All this supply is
going to be tough to get through without fresh impetus.
Not to mention the market may be starting to build in a
political risk component. Overall the market prefers Bush protectionism
to Kerry protectionism I think.
So while were down the largest 3 day move since
September, I doubt we'll see it threaten new highs again without
some fresh impetus. Mid quarter upgraded guidance from some of the
important corporate sectors might do it. Failing that I don't see it.
As well, since it looks like your just calling for a
short term bounce, we could both be right.
On a somewhat related front Kyoto reported today that
the US has officially asked (the Bush administration rarely "asks"
anything, but that was the euphenism used) the Japanese to stop
intervening in the FX markets. This coupled with Japanese year end at the
end of the month, we might well see a total reversal of flows as the
Japanese start to repatriate funds.
The who bond house of cards where the Japanese sold low
yielding JGB bonds, took the proceeds and bought the dollars to push the
yen lower, and then bought the higher US yielding bonds with the
dollars, maybe be starting to unravel. While everyone is watching the
Fed or NFP numbers right now, its not going to be the driver for the
immediate horizon in the bond market imo.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=jim@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Jim Curry
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004
2:54 PM
Subject: [RT] SPX 60 Min
60 Min SPX (detrended slightly) - Updated on the projected path for
the next few days
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