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Hey Joe,
thanks for the word. you could be correct about the bigger trend chaging,
though I do still have an outstanding upside target to 1176 SPX CASH, good
through late-April. This target is valid as long as my main trend indicator does
not turn down - and it looks like we might need to see an SPX close below 1100
for that to occur. closing below it could target the 1030's, if seen
also, today is March 10, which is a short-term Bradley turn date (plus or
minus 2 days), which may try and make some form of low. Whether it holds or not
is the question mark.
one additional note is that the month of March in election year has
typically fallen 1.4% to 2.1% from the February closing price, in fact 80% of
these have done so going back over 40 years; the same here would be 1120-1128
SPX CASH, which we have obviously said and done. <FONT
face="Frutiger 45 Light">One thing that I thought interesting
was that 80% of these March intra-month drops held at in the 2.6% range or
lower. A 2.6% drop from the February 1144 close would be 1115 SPX CASH -
which also just happens to be the January swing bottom - making this number key
I think in the coming days.
Obviously if the larger trend is flipping back to bearish then we can throw
much of the above out the window. Short-term the 60 min channel chart is
attached, which is in agreement with Clyde's post from earlier (always good to
see another Hurst chart)
at any rate, a trip back to the 10 and 20 day averages appears to be in the
cards in the coming days, in the 1140's - and we will see what happens after
that.
Jim
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Joe
Duffy
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 3:14
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX 60 Min
Hey Everyone.... if your interested in Hurst or just in the
direction of markets, Jim does an excellent job covering the stock indexes in
his market letter.
Just to give an alternative view though Jim, I think the
market needs some sort of fresh news to get going again. There is a lot of
insider selling, mutual fund managers taking some money off the table (despite
good fund inflows), and too many new issues. All this supply is going to be
tough to get through without fresh impetus.
Not to mention the market may be starting to build in a
political risk component. Overall the market prefers Bush protectionism
to Kerry protectionism I think.
So while were down the largest 3 day move since
September, I doubt we'll see it threaten new highs again without
some fresh impetus. Mid quarter upgraded guidance from some of the important
corporate sectors might do it. Failing that I don't see it.
As well, since it looks like your just calling for a short
term bounce, we could both be right.
On a somewhat related front Kyoto reported today that the US
has officially asked (the Bush administration rarely "asks" anything, but that
was the euphenism used) the Japanese to stop intervening in the FX
markets. This coupled with Japanese year end at the end of the month, we might
well see a total reversal of flows as the Japanese start to repatriate funds.
The who bond house of cards where the Japanese sold low
yielding JGB bonds, took the proceeds and bought the dollars to push the yen
lower, and then bought the higher US yielding bonds with the
dollars, maybe be starting to unravel. While everyone is watching the Fed
or NFP numbers right now, its not going to be the driver for the immediate
horizon in the bond market imo.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Jim
Curry
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 2:54
PM
Subject: [RT] SPX 60 Min
60 Min SPX (detrended slightly) - Updated on the projected path for the
next few days
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Attachment:
spx-60 min.GIF
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