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RB wrote:
I
agree. It is deffinately the meaning of prediction that is the problem
in this whole silly posting. I
still can't believe that someone else is telling me that I am predicting
something when I know I am not.
********** I predict that Adrian
will be dogmatic in the future!
Anyway,
the type of indicators I use, can change so much, that you would laugh
if I showed you the indicators and told you they were predicting something.
If anything, they would be predicting confussion most of the time.
:) Anyway, enough time
has been spent on this silly predicting the future stuff. Lets be
through with it. I
know I can't predict the future and don't try.
<blockquote dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<div
>From:
H&M Feld
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 5:23
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
A good definition of prediction
that would apply perfectly to trading that I just read is: "Reasoning about
the future." Isn't that what you are doing when you decide to act
on a signal from your indicators. Who set-up your indicators? Who got to
know them? Who programmed/installed them to give you a signal? When you
get a signal from your indicators and take the trade you are trusting your
indicators are telling you there is a high probability the market is going
to move in the direction the signal is giving. You say: "My indicators
are predicting nothing. If they could, I would never lose or have to use
stops." I just can't agree with this interpretation of the word prediction.
A prediction is just that: A prediction. It might be wrong; it might be
right. A prediction is not something infallible like you are inferring
in your quoted statement here. An indicator is giving you a signal
because in its calculations of the market, set by you from your experience
of the market, certain parameters have been met where there is a
high probability the market is going to move a certain way. I would
certainly call this predicting or "reasoning about the future."Harry
<blockquote
>
----- Original Message -----
<div
>From:
RB
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 9:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
LOL! My indicators are predicting
nothing. If they could, I would never lose or have to use stops.
Why in the world do you think I can or am predicting anything. This
has got to be a joke! It is probably what the word predicting means
to me.It is most likely
a different meaning than yours.This
is kind of what predicting means to me.A
prediction may be something like. The market will go up tomorrow,
next week or what ever.Trading
may be something like. I got a buy signal, but have no idea what
will happen so I will put in a stop and look at the charts tommorrow. Or
maybe for a prediction. My team will win the next game. Not
a prediction. My team should win the next game, because I think we
are better than the other team, but anything can happen, so time will tell. So
yes. I deffinately fail to see the odvious. Especially when
someone else that does not know me, tells me that I predict something when
I know I don't, never have and never will predict anything. That
is just silly. My indicators
are just swiggily lines on a chart, and only a fool would think that they
can predict anything. If you or anyone else thinks that just because
a swiggily line on a chart turns up or down, crosses this or that and it
means they are actually predicting something in the future, you are just
fooling yourself. I know now why it is easier to make money selling
to traders than trading. This
has become a joke. Saying some indicators that I have and use can
predict something in the future. Maybe
too much TV?
<blockquote dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<div
>From:
Adrian
Pitt
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, March 08, 2004 12:20
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] nasdaq and sp500
top
RB,You
fail to see the obvious. When you take a buy signal based on your
indicators you ARE making a prediction.End
of story...to disagree with this is to stick ones head in the sand and
argue semantics. If you make moneyfrom
your trades on balance, by definition your tools are making an accurate
forecast just as you intended them to. Perhaps
not in the narrow sense you <span
class=250321708-08032004>may
think, but a forecast they are making. I'll leave it to you to work out
what that exactly is...but its as plain as the nose on your face :)Cheers,Adrian
<blockquote
>
-----Original
Message-----
From: RB [mailto:rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Monday, 8 March 2004
1:43 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and
sp500 top
To some people maybe. But, I use indicators etc. and predict
nothing. If
my indicators show buy. I buy. Nothing to do with me
predicting anything
at all. And that is good. My opinions and predictions
are usually not too
good. In other words I would be wrong to often. I like
to use charts and
let my indicators etc. do the work. I leave the predictions
to the psycics.
As far as taking trades. I am predicting nothing. What
would make you
think I could or would predict anything?
I take the signals, use stops and don't worry about it.
Kind of like any bussiness, games or anything in life. We
can't predict if
we will win, but we can prepare and do our best and hope things
work out.
Yes, I know Broadway Joe predicted the jets win over the colts.
Some
things can't be explained! :) But, most teams prepare
and hope for the
best, but can't predict the out come.
If i would have tried, I would have probably predicted the
last 5 tops in
the stock market that didn't happen. LOL!
Many others have done this many, many times.
I guess some try to predict? I don't predict anything!
----- Original Message -----
From: "ClydeLee (swb)" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 3:24 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
> You say:
>
> " I've been following markets for close to 30 years and have
never
> predicted anything."
>
> Now personally I think that is a crock.
>
> Any time you take a trade you are predicting that prices will
move in
> a direction that will make you a profit or you would not take
a trade.
>
> This concept of not predicting and only reacting to the market
is
> definitely out of kilter with reality!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO
(Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation
email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at:
www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 6:49 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
>
>
> > Yep. The word predict has nothing to do with trading.
> > If it did we would never need stops or protection. :)
> > I've been following markets for close to 30 years and
have never
> predicted
> > anything.
> > Just be careful with the ones who claim they can predict,
or make a
> $1,000
> > a day or make 200% a week in trading etc. There are many of
those crooks
> on
> > the net. If they could do that, they would have more
money than Gates
in
> 4
> > years. Just find out their names and check to see if they are
listed as
> one
> > of the richest peopele in the world. Odds are they are
not even close
to
> > being the richest on their block. :) Most likely not
even the richest
in
> > their own family. LOL!
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "mr.ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 11:39 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
> >
> >
> > > One can not predict the future with 100% reliability, but
one can
trade
> > with
> > > a very high degree of probability, 80%+. As for owning
the world, not
> > with
> > > the current liquidity.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 1:41 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
> > >
> > >
> > > > The future can not be predicted period. If one could,
they would
own
> > the
> > > > world. But, since one can't, we are in the same boat.
:) Run don't
> > walk
> > > > from someone saying this or that predicts this or that.
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
> > > > To: "profitok" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 7:01 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Hello Ben,
> > > > >
> > > > > I have overlaid it over Wilshire 5000 index portfolio
(symbol
> WINDX).
> > > > > See attached. As far as
I can see (and of course I may be
> missing
> > > > > smth.) for the last year the study predicted about
5 tops that
> didn't
> > > > > occur and suggested no one long (didn't predict any bottom).
> > > > >
> > > > > Best regards,
> > > > > Alex
mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Sunday, March 7, 2004, 8:14:26 AM, you wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > p> Hello
> > > > >
> > > > > p> this is my long term trading
> > > > > p> it is done on the weekly bars of the whilshire
5000
> > > > > p> (almost all stocks traded)
> > > > >
> > > > > p> when the line reaches the top it is a good time to
exit your
> > > > conservative money and 401K and IRA
> > > > >
> > > > > p> right now we are VERY close to a top (max
upside potential
is
> > 250
> > > > whilshire 5000 points)
> > > > >
> > > > > p> the chrt is reduced to a 1/10 of value
(current close 11314)
> > > > > p> Ben
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
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