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SP Commercials shifted from slightly net long to modestly net short for
first time since mid-January, however does not appear to be enough to be
classified as bearish. Another warning sign is a more
established widening on the weekly credit spread chart ... this
indicates reduced willingness of investors to assume risk. My daily breadth
models are slightly bullish. Technically, the SPX chart looks like it still
has a bit of upside left although probably limited to 20 or so
handles.
When it became obvious that my order to add to put position was not going
to be filled on Friday's spike to 1063, I shorted the emini and was lucky
enough to be filled within 2 ticks of the high. I closed some emini
out on Friday's drop and I will begin the week by closing out the
remainder of the short emini, maintain the put position, and look to
re-establish shorts at slightly higher levels in the SPX.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:17
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
Weekly chart of SPX attached.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing,
and Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close leaving
in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have orders working
to add to put position on any rally from monthly Employment Lie. During
the past couple of weeks I've closed out all trading positions in stocks and
now hold significant cash position. I still like energy stocks and hold core
positions to which I will add during any correction in equities.
There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the 38%
retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area holds,
then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could be in the cards. On a
fundamental basis, the market is richly priced and risks are strongly to the
downside should the public lose its taste for speculation.
Earl
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