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Another bit of the inflationary cycle. Almost
everything we buy is imported now and with the falling dollar their cost goes
higher. In the grocery fruit and vegetables from Mexico, Central and South
America. Clothing and electronic products are examples of things from
Asia. Oil from the middle east. Now tech support in many industries comes from
Asia also. I don't like the idea of my medical x-rays or other diagnostics
being analyzed in India. I know how bad their tech support is for my
computer. One could die waiting for some supervisor to come up with a
answer that has a high probability of being wrong. Just some
thoughts on a Sat. Morning. Ira
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 8:08
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
Dollar appears to be in a corrective rally to downtrend. Interest rates
have been moving inversely to dollar so I would expect a dollar rally to
pressure both interest rates and stocks. Oil prices have been moving inversely
to dollar, therefore expect a dollar rally to moderate oil price increases ...
increases are in large part due to scarcity and political risks.
IMO, rate increase risk from Fed is next to nil, however, historically,
the Fed is almost always behind the market. The market risk is that foreign
central banks (primarily China and Japan) slow down their purchases of US
Treasuries which have been keeping mid-long term rates low here. As of
this week's Federal Reserve report, there is no sign of this. However, last
week AG lectured the Chinese and Japanese CB's on follies of massive treasury
purchases to ameliorate decline in dollar. I would expect a dollar rally
to reduce CB intervention and therefore purchases.
Bottom line ... there is a very tangled, inter-dependent web of
unparalleled intervention which is keeping the world economies afloat. The
risks are very high.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 8:31
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
The party
will continue until the market perceives a future event that will end
it.
Candidate
events:
1) terrorist
action
2) fed
interest rate increase
3) US Dollar
declines sharply; foreign central bank currency moves
4) crude oil
above $40
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
This market
seems to be hyper-sensitive to interest rate rises....
bad news on
employement is good news for it right now.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: EarlA
[mailto:earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 10:43
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
sp500/nasdaq top
Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had orders
for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is putting
in a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they won't fill my
put order.
I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the
Fed won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought
to the fact that continued employment problems will lead to reduced
consumption and other (economic and political) fall-out from reduced
consumer confidence. Foreign currencies are rallying hard which means even
higher energy prices are in the cards.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03
swing, and Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close
leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have
orders working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all
trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I
still like energy stocks and hold core positions to which I will add
during any correction in equities.
There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the
38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area
holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could be in the cards.
On a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced and risks are
strongly to the downside should the public lose its taste for
speculation.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">profitok
To: <A
title=astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
<A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A title=yacov@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Yacov Twena ; <A
title=bigschmo@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">vincent ; <A
title=u.Stuart-Auslander@xxxxxxx
href="">U.
Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net (E-mail) ; <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
href="">Slawek (E-mail) ; <A
title=rmac@xxxxxxxx href="">Ronald McEwan ; <A
title=rginsat@xxxxxxxxxx href="">Ron Miller
(E-mail) ; <A title=panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ;
Ned Markson
(E-mail) ; Mike
Burk ; <A title=ketayun@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Kate (E-mail) ; <A
title=Jseaton357@xxxxxxx
href="">Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=Gocycles@xxxxxxx
href="">Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=urania@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Elizabeth (E-mail) ; <A
title=dcarter888@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">doroty.h ; <A
title=dperrino@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Dom
Perrino ; <A title=dan.danc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dan C (E-mail) ; <A
title=cyclesman@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">Cyclesman (E-mail)
Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004
9:43 PM
Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
Most likely 3/5/04 should be
a top for a while
get out of longs and if you have
long term gains consider writing calls
most likely next is 1050 on
sp
if I am wrong, the max upside is only
10-15 sp points
best regards
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Ben
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