|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Dollar appears to be in a corrective rally to downtrend. Interest rates
have been moving inversely to dollar so I would expect a dollar rally to
pressure both interest rates and stocks. Oil prices have been moving inversely
to dollar, therefore expect a dollar rally to moderate oil price increases ...
increases are in large part due to scarcity and political risks.
IMO, rate increase risk from Fed is next to nil, however, historically, the
Fed is almost always behind the market. The market risk is that foreign central
banks (primarily China and Japan) slow down their purchases of US Treasuries
which have been keeping mid-long term rates low here. As of this week's
Federal Reserve report, there is no sign of this. However, last week AG lectured
the Chinese and Japanese CB's on follies of massive treasury purchases to
ameliorate decline in dollar. I would expect a dollar rally to reduce CB
intervention and therefore purchases.
Bottom line ... there is a very tangled, inter-dependent web of
unparalleled intervention which is keeping the world economies afloat. The risks
are very high.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Mark Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2004 8:31
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
The party will
continue until the market perceives a future event that will end
it.
Candidate
events:
1) terrorist
action
2) fed interest
rate increase
3) US Dollar
declines sharply; foreign central bank currency moves
4) crude oil
above $40
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
This market
seems to be hyper-sensitive to interest rate rises....
bad news on
employement is good news for it right now.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: EarlA
[mailto:earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 10:43
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
sp500/nasdaq top
Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had orders
for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is putting in
a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they won't fill my put
order.
I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the Fed
won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the
fact that continued employment problems will lead to reduced consumption and
other (economic and political) fall-out from reduced consumer confidence.
Foreign currencies are rallying hard which means even higher energy prices
are in the cards.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
EarlA
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03
swing, and Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close
leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have
orders working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all
trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I
still like energy stocks and hold core positions to which I will add
during any correction in equities.
There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the
38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area
holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could be in the cards. On
a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced and risks are strongly to
the downside should the public lose its taste for speculation.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">profitok
To: <A
title=astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: <A title=yacov@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Yacov Twena ; <A
title=bigschmo@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">vincent ; <A
title=u.Stuart-Auslander@xxxxxxx
href="">U.
Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net (E-mail) ; <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
href="">Slawek (E-mail) ; <A
title=rmac@xxxxxxxx href="">Ronald McEwan ; <A
title=rginsat@xxxxxxxxxx href="">Ron Miller
(E-mail) ; <A title=panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
title=cnedgo@xxxxxxxx href="">Ned Markson
(E-mail) ; Mike
Burk ; <A title=ketayun@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Kate (E-mail) ; <A
title=Jseaton357@xxxxxxx
href="">Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=Gocycles@xxxxxxx
href="">Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=urania@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Elizabeth (E-mail) ; <A
title=dcarter888@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">doroty.h ; <A
title=dperrino@xxxxxxxxxxxxx href="">Dom
Perrino ; <A title=dan.danc@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dan C (E-mail) ; <A
title=cyclesman@xxxxxxxxxx href="">Cyclesman
(E-mail)
Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43
PM
Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq
top
Most likely 3/5/04 should be a
top for a while
get out of longs and if you have long
term gains consider writing calls
most likely next is 1050 on
sp
if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15
sp points
best regards
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Ben
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
Click Here
Yahoo! Groups Links
To visit your group on the web, go to:http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
|