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So calls rallied also. Calls rallied due to price rally and increased
volatility. Puts rallied due to increased volatility only and in spite
of price rally. Righ this moment, when volatility decreased and market
declined from its morning high, March puts and calls in red together.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Friday, March 5, 2004, 7:54:44 PM, you wrote:
mi> The only reason the puts would rally would be if the calls rallied and vice
mi> versa. That would keep the conversion/reversal in line.
mi> ----- Original Message -----
mi> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
mi> To: "EarlA" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
mi> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 8:30 AM
mi> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>> Hello EarlA,
>>
>> Puts rallied on strong market rallie mean only their implied
>> volatility increased. What is quite natural in the light of strong
>> price movement (dependless of its direction).
>>
>> Best regards,
>> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>>
>>
>> Friday, March 5, 2004, 6:42:59 PM, you wrote:
>>
>> E> Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
>> E> target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had
>> E> orders for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is
>> E> putting in a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they
>> E> won't fill my put order.
>>
>> E> I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the Fed
mi> won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the fact
mi> that continued employment problems will lead to
>> E> reduced consumption and other (economic and political) fall-out from
mi> reduced consumer confidence. Foreign currencies are rallying hard which
mi> means even higher energy prices are in the cards.
>>
>> E> Earl
>>
>> E> ----- Original Message -----
>> E> From: EarlA
>> E> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> E> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11 AM
>> E> Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>>
>>
>> E> SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
mi> includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing, and
mi> Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
>>
>> E> I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close
mi> leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have orders
mi> working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
>> E> Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all
mi> trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I still
mi> like energy stocks and hold core positions to which
>> E> I will add during any correction in equities.
>>
>> E> There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the
mi> 38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area
mi> holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could
>> E> be in the cards. On a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced
mi> and risks are strongly to the downside should the public lose its taste for
mi> speculation.
>>
>> E> Earl
>> E> ----- Original Message -----
>> E> From: profitok
>> E> To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> E> Cc: Yacov Twena ; vincent ; U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net (E-mail) ;
mi> Slawek (E-mail) ; Ronald McEwan ; Ron Miller (E-mail) ;
mi> panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; Ned Markson
>> E> (E-mail) ; Mike Burk ; Kate (E-mail) ; Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ;
mi> Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; Elizabeth (E-mail) ; doroty.h ; Dom Perrino ; Dan C
mi> (E-mail) ; Cyclesman (E-mail)
>> E> Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43 PM
>> E> Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>>
>>
>> E> Most likely 3/5/04 should be a top for a while
>>
>> E> get out of longs and if you have long term gains consider writing
mi> calls
>>
>> E> most likely next is 1050 on sp
>>
>> E> if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15 sp points
>>
>> E> best regards
>> E> Ben
>>
>>
>>
>>
E>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
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>>
>>
>>
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