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The only reason the puts would rally would be if the calls rallied and vice
versa. That would keep the conversion/reversal in line.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
To: "EarlA" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 8:30 AM
Subject: Re[2]: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
> Hello EarlA,
>
> Puts rallied on strong market rallie mean only their implied
> volatility increased. What is quite natural in the light of strong
> price movement (dependless of its direction).
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Friday, March 5, 2004, 6:42:59 PM, you wrote:
>
> E> Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
> E> target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had
> E> orders for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is
> E> putting in a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they
> E> won't fill my put order.
>
> E> I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the Fed
won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the fact
that continued employment problems will lead to
> E> reduced consumption and other (economic and political) fall-out from
reduced consumer confidence. Foreign currencies are rallying hard which
means even higher energy prices are in the cards.
>
> E> Earl
>
> E> ----- Original Message -----
> E> From: EarlA
> E> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> E> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11 AM
> E> Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>
>
> E> SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing, and
Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
>
> E> I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close
leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have orders
working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
> E> Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all
trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I still
like energy stocks and hold core positions to which
> E> I will add during any correction in equities.
>
> E> There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the
38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area
holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could
> E> be in the cards. On a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced
and risks are strongly to the downside should the public lose its taste for
speculation.
>
> E> Earl
> E> ----- Original Message -----
> E> From: profitok
> E> To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> E> Cc: Yacov Twena ; vincent ; U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net (E-mail) ;
Slawek (E-mail) ; Ronald McEwan ; Ron Miller (E-mail) ;
panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; Ned Markson
> E> (E-mail) ; Mike Burk ; Kate (E-mail) ; Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ;
Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; Elizabeth (E-mail) ; doroty.h ; Dom Perrino ; Dan C
(E-mail) ; Cyclesman (E-mail)
> E> Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43 PM
> E> Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>
>
> E> Most likely 3/5/04 should be a top for a while
>
> E> get out of longs and if you have long term gains consider writing
calls
>
> E> most likely next is 1050 on sp
>
> E> if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15 sp points
>
> E> best regards
> E> Ben
>
>
>
>
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