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Once again the conversion/reversal in action.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
To: "mr.ira" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 9:05 AM
Subject: Re[4]: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
> So calls rallied also. Calls rallied due to price rally and increased
> volatility. Puts rallied due to increased volatility only and in spite
> of price rally. Righ this moment, when volatility decreased and market
> declined from its morning high, March puts and calls in red together.
>
> Best regards,
> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>
>
> Friday, March 5, 2004, 7:54:44 PM, you wrote:
>
> mi> The only reason the puts would rally would be if the calls rallied
and vice
> mi> versa. That would keep the conversion/reversal in line.
>
>
> mi> ----- Original Message -----
> mi> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
> mi> To: "EarlA" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> mi> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 8:30 AM
> mi> Subject: Re[2]: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
>
>
> >> Hello EarlA,
> >>
> >> Puts rallied on strong market rallie mean only their implied
> >> volatility increased. What is quite natural in the light of strong
> >> price movement (dependless of its direction).
> >>
> >> Best regards,
> >> Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
> >>
> >>
> >> Friday, March 5, 2004, 6:42:59 PM, you wrote:
> >>
> >> E> Fascinating market action ... SPX has rallied to 1162.99 (within my
> >> E> target range) while the price of the June 1150 puts I hold (and had
> >> E> orders for more) has also rallied. This suggests that the market is
> >> E> putting in a blow-off. Had to short emini since it looks like they
> >> E> won't fill my put order.
> >>
> >> E> I assume that this rally is all about the perceived notion that the
Fed
> mi> won't raise rates so the market can party longer. Not a thought to the
fact
> mi> that continued employment problems will lead to
> >> E> reduced consumption and other (economic and political) fall-out from
> mi> reduced consumer confidence. Foreign currencies are rallying hard
which
> mi> means even higher energy prices are in the cards.
> >>
> >> E> Earl
> >>
> >> E> ----- Original Message -----
> >> E> From: EarlA
> >> E> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> E> Sent: Friday, March 05, 2004 6:11 AM
> >> E> Subject: Re: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
> >>
> >>
> >> E> SPX is very close to long standing target range of 1060-1073 which
> mi> includes: 50% retracement to ATH, 200% expansion of Oct02-Mar03 swing,
and
> mi> Dec01-Mar02 triple top.
> >>
> >> E> I closed out long emini position just ahead of Thursday's close
> mi> leaving in place a SPX put established on Wednesday. I also have
orders
> mi> working to add to put position on any rally from monthly
> >> E> Employment Lie. During the past couple of weeks I've closed out all
> mi> trading positions in stocks and now hold significant cash position. I
still
> mi> like energy stocks and hold core positions to which
> >> E> I will add during any correction in equities.
> >>
> >> E> There should be good support in the 1015+- area which includes the
> mi> 38% retracement to the Mar03 low and the Jun-Jul03 highs. If this area
> mi> holds, then another run to higher highs (1250+-) could
> >> E> be in the cards. On a fundamental basis, the market is richly priced
> mi> and risks are strongly to the downside should the public lose its
taste for
> mi> speculation.
> >>
> >> E> Earl
> >> E> ----- Original Message -----
> >> E> From: profitok
> >> E> To: astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> E> Cc: Yacov Twena ; vincent ; U. Stuart-Auslander@xxxx Net
(E-mail) ;
> mi> Slawek (E-mail) ; Ronald McEwan ; Ron Miller (E-mail) ;
> mi> panda2222@xxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; Ned Markson
> >> E> (E-mail) ; Mike Burk ; Kate (E-mail) ; Jseaton357@xxxxxxx ;
> mi> Gocycles@xxxxxxx ; Elizabeth (E-mail) ; doroty.h ; Dom Perrino ; Dan C
> mi> (E-mail) ; Cyclesman (E-mail)
> >> E> Sent: Thursday, March 04, 2004 9:43 PM
> >> E> Subject: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
> >>
> >>
> >> E> Most likely 3/5/04 should be a top for a while
> >>
> >> E> get out of longs and if you have long term gains consider
writing
> mi> calls
> >>
> >> E> most likely next is 1050 on sp
> >>
> >> E> if I am wrong, the max upside is only 10-15 sp points
> >>
> >> E> best regards
> >> E> Ben
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
>
E>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> >>
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> mi> Service.
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
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> >>
> >>
> >>
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