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--- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx> wrote:
> I agree with you on the 70's style whatever-it-was market for which
I use the term transitional....neither bull nor bear. With the
exception of brief periods of volatility I expect more of what we've
seen the past 6 months - but it will slowly/steadily get worse and
compress even further.
>
> Yes, I was referring to environmental tools such as breadth, vix
etc.
breadth still works....even some pre year 2K mechanical A-D systems
work...untouched, untuned. granted you can't get blood out of a rock:
smaller moves mean smaller net per trade.
>Price patterns and trendlines/horizontal lines still work just fine.
>
> I hope you're right on a return to volatility. But until then I'll
continue to avoid the indexes.
I suspect volatility will come and go like it always has. Indeed, I
suspect we agree: the current contraction is a reaction to the very
strong trends that followed 1970's contraction (and vice versa).
Periods of "rest" (contraction) are followed by periods of activity
(volatility, impulsiveness, trendiness). Breaking the current wedge
(contraction) is the first order of business before anything
dramatic, even short term, happens....that was my original point.
Indeed, lulling folks to sleep or getting them "to avoid the indexes"
is part of the process.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 2:35 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
>
>
> > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Well, my next preference would be both but not very far in
either
> > direction.
> > >
> > > Normally after boom/bust periods, like we're in now, a market
tends
> > to do a lot of nothing for a very long time.
> >
> > I don't disagree with that, but a lot of nothing like we just had
> > could mean a trip back to < 800? Or up another 300 SPX points?
Right?
> > I'm on record, and I took a lot of flack for it here,
> > saying we could see a sort of 70's style bear. That market "did
> > nothing" for a very long time, but in the context of a 50% range
(Dow
> > 500-1000). Iraq ain't as bad as 'Nam yet (50K body bags back then
> > kids), but it smells a bit like those bad old days. It's not
George
> > Sr.'s wam-bam-thank-you-mam clean made for TV kinda war, that's
for
> > sure.
> >
> > > Plus favorite tools (outside of Price) that may have worked
well in
> > a bull or bear market are not likely to work as well, if at all,
in a
> > transitional market.
> >
> > Are you saying stuff like breadth or trendlines or price patterns
are
> > no longer working? I agree the market is less trendy, but even
within
> > that context markets tend to cycle from choppy to more volatile
and
> > back again. FWIW, multiple weekly ADX's (just a way to
> > quantify "price" movement, or lack thereof) are at their lowest
> > levels in three years....sooner or later they will begin to rise
> > again when price becomes more impulsive.
> >
> > >
> > > Just my 2 cents.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 10:31 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> > >
> > >
> > > > > And if I had to bet $1 on where we go from here - a melt-
up, a
> > melt-
> > > > down or neither, I'd put in on 'neither'.
> > > >
> > > > How about 'either'? There's a pretty tight wedge that's
formed
> > dating
> > > > back to July. The rising upper trend line is near 1075, and
the
> > lower
> > > > is above 1040. As long as it stays inside the lines, it stays
> > inside
> > > > the lines <g>. As big wave surfers say, "everything is OK
until
> > > > something goes wrong." IOW, no worries until someone gets
killed.
> > > > Anyway, it makes sense to me to watch how the market acts
around
> > > > those TL's. Wedges often can lead into *either* accelerations
or
> > > > sharp breaks or they persist a while longer....but sooner or
later
> > > > someone gets killed by a surprise wave.
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Bobh" <BHEISLER@xxxx>
wrote:
> > > > > Since we are in a post-bubble, transitional market I'm
> > wondering if
> > > > this comparison is applicable now. It reached single digits
back
> > in
> > > > the early 1990's and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we saw
> > those
> > > > levels again.
> > > > >
> > > > > I don't disagree that this market looks like an accident
> > waiting to
> > > > happen, but it's looked this way since June. And if I had to
bet
> > $1
> > > > on where we go from here - a melt-up, a melt-down or neither,
I'd
> > put
> > > > in on 'neither'.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: EarlA
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Sent: Friday, December 05, 2003 8:00 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Attached chart marks off 7 years of SPX vs VXO (old VIX).
> > Note
> > > > the 3 heavy red arrows marking extreme low readings w/o
7/24/98,
> > > > 9/8/00 and current.
> > > > >
> > > > > Earl
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: SLAWEKP@xxxx
> > > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > Sent: Thursday, December 04, 2003 11:48 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Market environment
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > VIX is in rare Fibo window cycle for low between now &
> > Monday
> > > > Dec 8th.
> > > > >
> > > > > low for VIX = high for SPX
> > > > >
> > > > > Weekly Broker index is topping......this is also
leading
> > > > indicator
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > > >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
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