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Ref oil and gas -- an industry analyst recently observed that oil
projects currently in development world wide will raise production above
the expected growth in demand over the next few years. As for natural gas,
there are large reserves in the Mid-East, North Africa and Southeast Asia
that are currently "stranded" for lack of access to markets. At $4 to $5
an MCFG it is economic to liquify this gas and build the tankers and
terminals to move it to US and European markets. Domestic $1.5--$2 gas
might be gone, but there is plenty available internationally at higher
prices. Of course, this will raise the trade deficit.
Oil is priced in dollars. The question is, given the declining
value of the dollar, will producing nations be content with OPEC's
$22--$28/BO price target? Also, will non-OPEC nations, particularly
Russia, voluntarily restrict export to support OPEC pricing. Mexico and
Norway have done so in the past.
Charles Marchand
At 08:07 AM 10/4/2003 -0600, you wrote:
>Stick with the plan, whatever it was! If you were bearish (or bullish) on
>the intermediate term fundamentals of the market, did a couple of weeks of
>decline (or rally) change the fundamentals? If not, then assess the
>technicals. Has the intermediate term technical picture changed radically
>during the past few weeks? If the fundamentals have not changed
>significantly and the intermediate term technicals have not changed
>significantly, then stick with the plan. If one or both have changed
>significantly, then adjust the plan.
>
>I see a market which is fundamentally very over valued, an economy which is
>running on whatever air the government can pump into the credit system, a
>world in which is the US$ is over priced and over extended, and a world in
>which oil and gas is in flat to declining production. I see a stock market
>in which the intermediate term rally is running out of gas, currency markets
>in which the dollar is in an established downtrend, and credit markets which
>are in turmoil within an established uptrend.
>
>I began scaling into an intermediate term put position on the last rally and
>will continue doing so should we get new highs ... I am now confident that
>there is far more downside risk than upside opportunity in the stock market.
>I have been holding intermediate term positions in Yen or Euro for some
>months and will be adding to positions on the current dollar bounce. I have
>muni bond positions which are yielding close to 7% tax free and have no
>plans to cash them in. I have gas and oil trusts which are yielding close to
>12%, with large capital gains to boot, and have not plans to sell until we
>are well into winter. I also have sizeable cash positions for shopping when
>opportunities arise. The point is, if one has a sound plan, one sticks with
>it.
>
>Earl
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
>To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 11:24 AM
>Subject: [RT] The Top Is In
>
>
> >
> > And just when some of you folks had me convinced...KABOOM! Now what to do
> > with all that cash and nothing I like to short. Ideas?
> >
> > On the real reason for this post...I now think the top is not in if the
> > close is above previous high close.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
>
>
>
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>
>
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