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Well done Earl....and as you have indicated, emotions drive the market in
the short-run,
but nothing can stop the FUNDAMENTALS from overcoming this
drive...eventually.
Problem is: no one knows exactly when EVENTUALLY is !
Right now, the fundamentals really, really stink.
The financial markets are just hoping against hope that these are ready to
look better:
1) lower crude and distillate and gasoline prices
2) higher US dollar
3) lower unemployment rate
4) top-line growth for major companies
These are not happening at the moment.
If they don't happen soon........l o o k o u t b e l o w ...
> -----Original Message-----
> From: EarlA [mailto:earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, October 04, 2003 10:08 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Top Is In
>
>
> Stick with the plan, whatever it was! If you were bearish (or bullish) on
> the intermediate term fundamentals of the market, did a couple of weeks of
> decline (or rally) change the fundamentals? If not, then assess the
> technicals. Has the intermediate term technical picture changed radically
> during the past few weeks? If the fundamentals have not changed
> significantly and the intermediate term technicals have not changed
> significantly, then stick with the plan. If one or both have changed
> significantly, then adjust the plan.
>
> I see a market which is fundamentally very over valued, an
> economy which is
> running on whatever air the government can pump into the credit system, a
> world in which is the US$ is over priced and over extended, and a world in
> which oil and gas is in flat to declining production. I see a stock market
> in which the intermediate term rally is running out of gas,
> currency markets
> in which the dollar is in an established downtrend, and credit
> markets which
> are in turmoil within an established uptrend.
>
> I began scaling into an intermediate term put position on the
> last rally and
> will continue doing so should we get new highs ... I am now confident that
> there is far more downside risk than upside opportunity in the
> stock market.
> I have been holding intermediate term positions in Yen or Euro for some
> months and will be adding to positions on the current dollar
> bounce. I have
> muni bond positions which are yielding close to 7% tax free and have no
> plans to cash them in. I have gas and oil trusts which are
> yielding close to
> 12%, with large capital gains to boot, and have not plans to sell until we
> are well into winter. I also have sizeable cash positions for
> shopping when
> opportunities arise. The point is, if one has a sound plan, one
> sticks with
> it.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 11:24 AM
> Subject: [RT] The Top Is In
>
>
> >
> > And just when some of you folks had me convinced...KABOOM! Now
> what to do
> > with all that cash and nothing I like to short. Ideas?
> >
> > On the real reason for this post...I now think the top is not in if the
> > close is above previous high close.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
>
>
>
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>
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