[RT] The Top Is In

[<jvc689@xxxxxxx>]

Dear Earl,

Great advice. And the close was below the previous high close.

I am neither bullish or bearish at this point...merely opportunistic.

Thanks again,

John

> Stick with the plan, whatever it was! If you were bearish (or bullish)
> on the intermediate term fundamentals of the market, did a couple of
> weeks of decline (or rally) change the fundamentals? If not, then assess
> the technicals. Has the intermediate term technical picture changed
> radically during the past few weeks? If the fundamentals have not
> changed
> significantly and the intermediate term technicals have not changed
> significantly, then stick with the plan. If one or both have changed
> significantly, then adjust the plan.
>
> I see a market which is fundamentally very over valued, an economy which
> is running on whatever air the government can pump into the credit
> system, a world in which is the US$ is over priced and over extended,
> and a world in which oil and gas is in flat to declining production. I
> see a stock market in which the intermediate term rally is running out
> of gas, currency markets in which the dollar is in an established
> downtrend, and credit markets which are in turmoil within an established
> uptrend.
>
> I began scaling into an intermediate term put position on the last rally
> and will continue doing so should we get new highs ... I am now
> confident that there is far more downside risk than upside opportunity
> in the stock market. I have been holding intermediate term positions in
> Yen or Euro for some months and will be adding to positions on the
> current dollar bounce. I have muni bond positions which are yielding
> close to 7% tax free and have no plans to cash them in. I have gas and
> oil trusts which are yielding close to 12%, with large capital gains to
> boot, and have not plans to sell until we are well into winter. I also
> have sizeable cash positions for shopping when opportunities arise. The
> point is, if one has a sound plan, one sticks with it.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
> To: <Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2003 11:24 AM
> Subject: [RT] The Top Is In
>
>
>>
>> And just when some of you folks had me convinced...KABOOM! Now what to
>> do with all that cash and nothing I like to short. Ideas?
>>
>> On the real reason for this post...I now think the top is not in if
>> the close is above previous high close.
>>
>> Sincerely,
>>
>> John
>
>
>
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