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You know, it is interesting that there are so many
very sophisticated fundamental and technical analysis systems and yet it all
boils down to one thing in the end. It is expressed in all the trite TV
crime stories and mysteries. I don't know why it is so hard to follow the
rule that is laid down there rather then try to guess where things are going to
turn. " <FONT
color=#ff0000 size=3>Just follow the money". <FONT
color=#000000 size=2> That will get you there every time.
In most cases the best system of all is just a simple trend line and a
cycle count. The KISS system always works best. Good trading.
Ira.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Dom
Perrino
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 10:31
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] Iraqi outcome - was:
NDX_60m
By the time those things will have happened the
markets ( which is the collective mind of all the participants) will
have used its own MIND and reflected that in the charts and other technicals
IN ADVANCE. I don't now of any technical analyst that would agree with
technical analysis being after the fact. Maybe you are thinking of fundamental
analysis.Incidentally, fundamental anaysis is also reflected in the technical
anaysis. CHARTS are a very important tool in technical analysis.
Using common sense etc. you mention is a given and should be used
in any endeavor. Nothing wrong with those.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
M.
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 12:10
PM
Subject: [RT] Iraqi outcome - was:
NDX_60m
We'll
see.....I am saying a "good" (I know that is not specific) outcome from the
Iraqi situation (winning a war, Hussein in exile, oil prices falling, Bin
Laden captured, etc) will cause a huge rally.
That's
all.
Technicals
won't tell you this.....until AFTER it happens.
Common-sense,
human thought, recollection of historical events, and some intuition come
into play here.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom Perrino
[mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003
9:46 AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] NDX_60m
Markets do not go( based on these events) as
we would logically expect the markets to go. Its not that
markets do not react to these events, all I am saying is that I look to
the Market to tell me where its going( via charts, technicals
etc.) not the events. Hope this clarifies.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">M. Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003
9:09 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] NDX_60m
Be
careful with that "OR" condition in there....<SPAN
class=710330314-28012003>as-stated, you are
correct.
But I am
implying an "IF-THEN" correlation:
IF the
market is down to new lows, THEN the US is having trouble with
Iraq.
or in
reverse:
IF the US
is having trouble with Iraq, THEN the market will go down to new
lows
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
I don't
agree these events are INDEPENDENT of EACH OTHER....that's the
key.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom Perrino
[mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 10:31 PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
NDX_60m
no. we cannot predetermine that if market
moves up or down that certain events will
occur.
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>From:
<A title=prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">M. Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003
9:47 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] NDX_60m
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Sounds like we are going to lose to Sadaam then
?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>right.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT
face=Tahoma size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom
Perrino [mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday,
January 27, 2003 8:30 PMTo: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] NDX_60m
Forgot to mention that the outcome,
even if we have short term rally, will be to the downside
Below the lows of last Oct.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dom Perrino
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 8:18 PM
Subject: Re: [RT]
NDX_60m
Hi,
My crystal ball agrees with
your scenario 100%.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=thegirlisherenow@xxxxxxxxx
href="">victoria keeling
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 5:53 PM
Subject: [RT]
NDX_60m
okay, it's a wrap...will support hold? two guys I respect a
lot [larry pesavento and bob carver] are both very bullish as
of today...while I am not sold yet, I have to concede that
this game is always full of surprises. a final thrust up would
likely catch the most traders with their pants down...and that
being the biggest joke the mkt likes to play, it could very
well happen. but first things first...in spite of all the
super-duper techniques we have to forecast direction, price
always has the final word...and what it's saying right now is
not decisive, either way...teetering on the precipice as it
is.
the attached chart shows my bottom-line litmus test and it
is a simple one...a swing low printed on the hourly chart
today (actually printed in the first hour and then dropped
lower still as the day progressed!) must be
confirmed...and it ain't happened yet! I want to see the
RSI up--straight as an arrow--to convince me that we really
have this swing low in place. it simply does not fail if
we're gonna get more that a 25-30 pt move.....which
is fine, but I'm not daytrading right now so I'm
personally looking for a more sustainable move.
a final note: the mkt has been reacting to war drums for
the past 2 weeks...even if GW says he's going in personally to
off sadam, we could get a small relief rally this week, just
because the tension will break...that's all I can forsee in
the bullish scenario--the possibility of higher prices from
which to go short!
anyway...blah-blah-blah...here's the chart...
V
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