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By the time those things will have happened the
markets ( which is the collective mind of all the participants) will
have used its own MIND and reflected that in the charts and other technicals IN
ADVANCE. I don't now of any technical analyst that would agree with technical
analysis being after the fact. Maybe you are thinking of fundamental
analysis.Incidentally, fundamental anaysis is also reflected in the technical
anaysis. CHARTS are a very important tool in technical analysis.
Using common sense etc. you mention is a given and should be used in
any endeavor. Nothing wrong with those.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
M.
Simms
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 12:10
PM
Subject: [RT] Iraqi outcome - was:
NDX_60m
We'll see.....I
am saying a "good" (I know that is not specific) outcome from the Iraqi
situation (winning a war, Hussein in exile, oil prices falling, Bin Laden
captured, etc) will cause a huge rally.
That's
all.
Technicals
won't tell you this.....until AFTER it happens.
Common-sense,
human thought, recollection of historical events, and some intuition come into
play here.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom Perrino
[mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003
9:46 AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re:
[RT] NDX_60m
Markets do not go( based on these events) as we
would logically expect the markets to go. Its not that markets do
not react to these events, all I am saying is that I look to the Market to
tell me where its going( via charts, technicals etc.) not the events.
Hope this clarifies.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
M.
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, January 28, 2003 9:09
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] NDX_60m
Be careful
with that "OR" condition in there....<SPAN
class=710330314-28012003>as-stated, you are
correct.
But I am
implying an "IF-THEN" correlation:
IF the
market is down to new lows, THEN the US is having trouble with
Iraq.
or in
reverse:
IF the US
is having trouble with Iraq, THEN the market will go down to new
lows
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
I don't
agree these events are INDEPENDENT of EACH OTHER....that's the
key.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom Perrino
[mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003
10:31 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] NDX_60m
no. we cannot predetermine that if market
moves up or down that certain events will
occur.
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>From:
<A title=prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">M. Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27, 2003
9:47 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] NDX_60m
Sounds
like we are going to lose to Sadaam then ?
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>right.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Dom Perrino
[mailto:acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 8:30 PMTo: <A
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
Re: [RT] NDX_60m
Forgot to mention that the outcome,
even if we have short term rally, will be to the downside
Below the lows of last Oct.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=acutimer@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Dom Perrino
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 8:18 PM
Subject: Re: [RT]
NDX_60m
Hi,
My crystal ball agrees with
your scenario 100%.
Dom
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
<A title=thegirlisherenow@xxxxxxxxx
href="">victoria keeling
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, January 27,
2003 5:53 PM
Subject: [RT] NDX_60m
okay, it's a wrap...will support hold? two guys I respect a
lot [larry pesavento and bob carver] are both very bullish as of
today...while I am not sold yet, I have to concede that this
game is always full of surprises. a final thrust up would likely
catch the most traders with their pants down...and that being
the biggest joke the mkt likes to play, it could very well
happen. but first things first...in spite of all the super-duper
techniques we have to forecast direction, price always has the
final word...and what it's saying right now is not decisive,
either way...teetering on the precipice as it is.
the attached chart shows my bottom-line litmus test and it is
a simple one...a swing low printed on the hourly chart today
(actually printed in the first hour and then dropped lower still
as the day progressed!) must be confirmed...and it
ain't happened yet! I want to see the RSI up--straight as an
arrow--to convince me that we really have this swing low in
place. it simply does not fail if we're gonna get more that a
25-30 pt move.....which is fine, but I'm not daytrading
right now so I'm personally looking for a more sustainable
move.
a final note: the mkt has been reacting to war drums for the
past 2 weeks...even if GW says he's going in personally to off
sadam, we could get a small relief rally this week, just because
the tension will break...that's all I can forsee in the bullish
scenario--the possibility of higher prices from which to go
short!
anyway...blah-blah-blah...here's the chart...
V
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