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So...where can I get me one of these
Super...etc..Landau...etc...Indicators?
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Ray
Raffurty
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 2:58
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific
predictions....... future of USA stock market
Hi Kant,
You wrote "...the alien wouldn't need to use
'extrapolation using the super-exponential
power-law log-periodic function derived from a first order Landau expansion of
the logarithm of the price".' But if he did he could get Trade
Station, program it, back test it, optimize the h^%# out of it,
build a website, and sell it to every sucker who comes along, who would
never make a dime with it.
Good luck and good trading,
Ray Raffurty
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Kent
Rollins
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 4:30
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific
predictions....... future of USA stock market
Exactly correct, Ray. If you had brought
a space-alien in and given him a chart of the S&P starting at the top
and asked him to forecast where it would go next, his forecast would
eventually hit 0 and then go negative.
And the alien wouldn't need to use "<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>extrapolation using the super-exponential
power-law log-periodic function derived from a first order Landau expansion
of the logarithm of the price" to develop that
prediction.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
href="mailto:r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx"; title=r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx>Ray Raffurty
To: <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A
href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx"; title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 11:34 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific predictions....... future of
USA stock market
When I was in collage my friends and I made
extra money designing and building light shows for rock bands. There
is a device called a Color Organ that splits the frequency of sounds, such
as a band, and activates a different colored light as a note in the
appropriate frequency is played, making the lights flash in time to the
music. At the time they where very expensive, so we just used random
flashing lights, much like flashing Christmas tree lights. After each
show everyone would compliment us on how the lights flashed in exact time to
the music. Of course we knew they where just random flashes, the
human mind superimposed the lights over the sound and convinced the viewer
that they where synchronized.
Looking at the attached chart of <FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>Sornette's prediction there is an obvious, but
dubious correlation. First all natural phenomenon such as this end at
some point. As anyone who has been following the market for more than
5 years knows, it is extremely difficult to predict when the pattern will
change. It could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now, or
yesterday. We will not know until well after it happens and a new
pattern is established. Secondly while short term projections can have
a high degree of accuracy long term projections do not. The weather
channel is extremely accurate for 3 or 5 days but much beyond that it
becomes very difficult.
This is little more than a trend following
indicator, and like all such indicators will work short
periods.
Good luck and good trading,
Ray Raffurty
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
John Cappello
To: <A href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";
title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx ; <A
href="mailto:REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003
1:28 PM
Subject: [RT] UCLA scientific
predictions....... future of USA stock market
If I follow this correctly we could have one more
leg up this year to give those of us with large cap mutual funds a
chance to exit at better prices, go into low risk securities and go
short.John------------------ Reply Separator
--------------------Originally From: <A
href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxxSubject: [RT] UCLA
scientific predictions....... future of USA stock marketDate:
01/01/2003 12:54pmRecommended New Year day
read.<A
href="http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/";>http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/Look
under Predictions:
then The future of USA stock marketalso good papers under
Publications: Finance They specialize in Scientific Predictions of
Catastrophes.Since 50% of populations owns stocks directly or via
retirement, its popular subject to do research on.His
predictions are in agreement with Benner cycle low in 2003I mention on
this forum before SLAWEKTo unsubscribe from this group,
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