Re: [RT] UCLA scientific predictions....... future of USA stock market

["Ray Raffurty" <r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx>]

Hi Kant,
 
You wrote "...the alien wouldn't need to use 
'extrapolation using the super-exponential 
power-law log-periodic function derived from a first order Landau expansion of 
the logarithm of the price".'   But if he did he could get Trade 
Station, program it, back test it, optimize the h^%# out of it, 
build a website, and sell it to every sucker who comes along, who would 
never make a dime with it.
 
Good luck and good trading,
 
Ray Raffurty
 
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Kent 
  Rollins 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 4:30 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific 
  predictions....... future of USA stock market
  
  Exactly correct, Ray.  If you had brought a 
  space-alien in and given him a chart of the S&P starting at the top and 
  asked him to forecast where it would go next, his forecast would eventually 
  hit 0 and then go negative.
   
  And the alien wouldn't need to use "<FONT 
  face="Times New Roman" size=3>extrapolation using the super-exponential 
  power-law log-periodic function derived from a first order Landau expansion of 
  the logarithm of the price" to develop that 
  prediction.
   
  Kent
   
   
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: <A 
  title=r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx href="mailto:r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx";>Ray Raffurty 
  
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
  title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx 
  Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 11:34 AM
  Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific predictions....... future of USA 
  stock market
  
  When I was in collage my friends and I made extra 
  money designing and building light shows for rock bands.  There is a 
  device called a Color Organ that splits the frequency of sounds, such as a 
  band, and activates a different colored light as a note in the appropriate 
  frequency is played, making the lights flash in time to the music.  
  At the time they where very expensive, so we just used random flashing lights, 
  much like flashing Christmas tree lights.  After each show everyone would 
  compliment us on how the lights flashed in exact time to the music.  Of 
  course we knew they where just random flashes, the human mind 
  superimposed the lights over the sound and convinced the viewer that they 
  where synchronized.
   
  Looking at the attached chart of <FONT 
  face="Times New Roman" size=3>Sornette's prediction there is an obvious, but 
  dubious correlation.  First all natural phenomenon such as this end at 
  some point.  As anyone who has been following the market for more than 5 
  years knows, it is extremely difficult to predict when the pattern will 
  change.  It could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now, or 
  yesterday.  We will not know until well after it happens and a new 
  pattern is established.  Secondly while short term projections can have a 
  high degree of accuracy long term projections do not.  The weather 
  channel is extremely accurate for 3 or 5 days but much beyond that it 
  becomes very difficult.
   
  This is little more than a trend following 
  indicator, and like all such indicators will work short periods.
   
  Good luck and good trading,
   
  Ray Raffurty
   
   
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
    John Cappello 

    To: <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx 
    href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx ; <A 
    title=REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="mailto:REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 1:28 
    PM
    Subject: [RT] UCLA scientific 
    predictions....... future of USA stock market
    If I follow this correctly we could have one more leg 
    up this year to give those of us with large cap mutual funds a chance to 
    exit at better prices, go into low risk securities and go 
    short.John------------------ Reply Separator 
    --------------------Originally From: <A 
    href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxxSubject: [RT] UCLA 
    scientific predictions....... future of USA stock marketDate: 
    01/01/2003 12:54pmRecommended New Year day  read.<A 
    href="http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/";>http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/Look 
    under Predictions:    
                                 
    then The future of USA stock marketalso good papers under 
    Publications: Finance They specialize in Scientific Predictions of 
    Catastrophes.Since 50% of populations owns stocks directly or via 
    retirement, its popular subject to do research on.His 
    predictions are in agreement with Benner cycle low in 2003I mention on 
    this forum before SLAWEKTo unsubscribe from this group, send 
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