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Go figure. The Mail Daemon kicked back my initial subject heading
of "Naked" Puts as obscene.
Mark,
All of my Dec and Jan Puts seem to be safe,namely;
FNM Strike Price Dec $50
FRE Strike Price Dec $45
DUK Strike Price Dec $12.50
ED Strike Price Dec $35
EXC Strike Price Jan $35
GE Strike Price Jan $17.50
S Strike Price Jan $15
JPM Strike Price Jan $12.50
All are in profit zone and none have come close to needing stop loss
intervention.
Have averaged $3000 per month in premium.
I am looking at:
CBSS
HIB
DUK
D
WYE
PFE
CSCO
SBC
as prospects for added Jan or Feb despite a potential market
drop...just will be extra careful with strike prices.
Wind out of my sails was just referring to the up and down value of
my Mutal Fund portfolio.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
December 2002
Date: 12/08/2002 02:21pm
Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002John - Based on your exquisite
timing with those short puts, even a 5 to 10% decline from this point
should
not affect those positions, correct ? Lots of premium should have been
taken-out by now.
Are they DEC, JAN, or FEB expirations ?
-----Original Message-----
From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Sunday, December 08, 2002 9:50 AM
To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
December
2002
This kind of took some of the wind out of my sails.
John ------------------ Forward Header --------------------
Originally From: Chip Anderson
Subject: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08 December 2002
Date: 12/07/2002 11:29pm
Received: from StockCharts.com ([12.144.129.34]) by tom.po.com
(8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id gB88KbXF017803 for ; Sun, 8 Dec 2002
03:20:37 -0500 (EST) Received: from StockCharts.com by
stockcharts.com with
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Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002
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--
published by StockCharts.com
ChartWatchers | John Murphy | Site News | Decision Point |
TD
Trader | Rhodes Report | Subscription Info
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--
Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! ChartWatchers
This week, I thought that I'd show you a couple of long term
charts
illustrating how the current market rally is overbought and due for a
pullback, how the major indices are hitting long-term resistance
levels and
why the intermarket picture indicates that you still need to be
careful
these days. Then I read John Murphy's latest Market Message update
and saw
that he has already said all of that much better than I ever could.
So, as a
special treat, I thought we'd share John's entire weekend update with
all of
our ChartWatchers. You'll find it below along with columns from our
"regulars" - Carl Swenlin, Arthur Hill and Richard Rhodes. Enjoy!
Be sure to read the "Site News" section of this newsletter for
exciting news about the latest member benefits resulting from our
merger
with MurphyMorris.com.
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--
Market Message
MARKET STILL BELOW RESISTANCE LEVELS... While we utilize daily
charts for shorter-term timing purposes, weekly and monthly charts
are much
better for picturing the market's longer-term trends. The market may
have
stopped going down. But it hasn't gone up much either -- certainly not
enough to reverse the major bear trend. Chart 1 shows that the recent
rally
in the S&P 500 has failed to overcome initial chart resistance at the
August
high (and the 40- week moving average). Those are the minimum
requirements
needed to confirm that a major bottom has been seen. Interestingly,
the flat
trendline where the market is meeting new selling coincides pretty
closely
with the lows of last September. That's because previous lows -- once
they're broken on the downside -- become new resistance barriers over
the
market. The weekly RSI line has reached potential resistance at 50.
The good
news is that the weekly MACD lines are still positive. Chart 2 draws a
trendline over the highs of the last three years. It hasn't been
broken yet.
A decisive upside break of that trendline is also needed to signal
that the
big bear has ended.
MONTHLY VIEW STILL NEGATIVE... The monthly chart also puts the
recent bounce into better perspective. The blue down trendline
matches the
resistance line shown in Chart 2. The flat red line is the "neckline"
that
was broken during July. In order to negate the potential "head and
shoulders" top, the S&P needs to rise back over the neckline. So far,
it
hasn't been able to do it. The monthly stochastics lines have turned
positive from oversold territory under 20 -- which is encouraging.
However,
the monthly MACD lines (which are slower to turn) haven't turned
positive
yet. That would also have to happen to signal that the the two-year
bear
market has ended.
HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM?... Several of our members has
asked about
the possible formation of a "head and shoulders" bottom being formed
in the
major averages. According to that view, the "left shoulder" was
formed by
the July bottom -- with the "head" forming at the October bottom. The
S&P
has stalled at its August high -- and a possible "neckline". So far,
so
good. To complete that pattern, the market still needs to pullback
enough to
form a "right shoulder". Then, it has to break the August high (and
the 200-
day moving average). It's certainly a plausible interpretation -- and
one
which we're taking seriously. The On balance volume line has already
exceeded its August high.
GOLD STOCKS SHINING AGAIN... Gold stocks have been the week's
strongest group. The daily chart shows the XAU exceeding its November
high
and its 200-day moving average. That's a bullish breakout. The weekly
chart
shows that the major uptrend in the XAU that started two years ago is
still
intact. It shows the recent pullback finding support at the two-year
support
line. Some of our members have asked about a "symmetrical triangle"
that's
been forming over the past six months (defined by the converging green
lines). Since the prior trend was up, the triangle is a bullish
continuation
pattern. The weekly chart also shows that the six-month falling
trendline
has been broken on the upside. That's another bullish sign. Two
intermarket
factors helping gold stocks are selling in stocks -- and a falling
dollar.
The dollar has been slipping all week -- and fell sharply today. A
falling
dollar is usually bullish for gold and gold stocks.
To get John's commentary throughout the week, sign up for John
Murphy's Market Message by clicking here.
Recently Joined? Need a Hand?
John Murphy's Getting
Started with
StockCharts.com
15- minute exercise
booklet will help you get started.
Download Now!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--
WHAT'S NEW ON THE WEBSITE StockCharts.com
A New "StockCharts Tutorial" booklet from John Murphy
If you think that you aren't getting everything you can out
of your
StockCharts' membership, stop what you're doing and download our new
tutorial "John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com" (Adobe
Acrobat
required). This 23-page booklet will ensure that you get off on the
right
foot with your membership. It takes about 15 minutes to complete -
possibly
the most productive 15 minutes you'll ever spend with your computer.
Simply
download and print this free booklet and then "Get Started!"
Unified StockCharts/Murphy Memberships Now Available!
Using our new unified sign-up page, StockCharts members can
now add
John Murphy's commentary to their existing accounts at a big discount.
Similarly, existing Murphy subscriber can add our "Basic" or "Extra"
charting service to their existing account and save money. New
subscribers
can now join both services in one easy step and existing members can
renew
or extend their memberships with much less hassle. The base pricing
for each
service hasn't changed, but the benefits of joining have never been
greater.
Click here to learn more about joining or upgrading your membership
today.
Don't forget: Subscribing in December can maximize your tax benefits!
"John Murphy" tab allows Murphy subscribers access from within
StockCharts
In addition to unifying our membership options, we also took
a big
step towards unifying the StockCharts and MurphyMorris websites last
week
with the introduction of the "John Murphy" tab on the StockCharts
website.
Now anyone who subscribes to John Murphy's Market Message service can
access
John's updates via either John's old website, MurphyMorris.com, or by
clicking on the "John Murphy" tab at the top of any StockCharts.com
page.
John's annotated Chart Book, his 1500-stock Market Carpet and his
audio
commentary are also available on either site. Just enter your regular
User
ID and password into the boxes that appear and you'll gain instant
access.
This is just the beginning - you'll start to see more and more of
John on
StockCharts.com in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned...
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Investors Intelligence Sentiment DecisionPoint
A lot of people tell you about this sentiment poll and give
you
their interpretation of the weekly results, but it is always best to
look at
the chart and make the historical comparisons yourself.
Note that high bullish readings appear at tops in a bear
market, and
in bull markets they mark periods of consolidation or deceleration.
The
threshold for major market bottoms is 50% bears. Note that we have
yet to
see those levels in spite of a 50% decline in the S&P 500.
The Bull/Bear Ratio section of the chart fine tunes the
results and
alerts us to lopsided readings even though historical thresholds of
bulls or
bears haven't been met. The most recent reading is 2.04. As you can
see, if
we are in a bull market as some claim, prices will probably flatten
until
some of the bullishness fades. If we are still in a bear market,
which is
most likely, much lower prices are probably dead ahead.
Charts courtesy of DecisionPoint.com
-Carl Swenlin
Don't forget to visit DecisionPoint's "Top Advisors Corner"
for
free, periodic updated from some of the best in known names in the
stock
market advisor business. Click here for the latest postings.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Biotechs Extend Consolidation TD Trader
There are two patterns at work in the Biotech HOLDRS: an
ascending
triangle and a rectangle consolidation. Ascending triangles are
typically
bullish continuation patterns, but can also form as bullish
reversals, which
would be the case with BBH. Consolidation patterns, such as
rectangles and
flags, are typically bullish continuation patterns, but can also
result in a
reversal.
Regardless of the pattern, key support and resistance levels
are
well defined and future performance is tied to the next break. A move
above
92 would confirm both the ascending triangle and the rectangle as
bullish.
Conversely, a move below 84 would break key support and be bearish.
As an
ascending triangle breakout, the projected advance would be to around
120
over the next few months (92 - 65 = 27, 92 + 27 = 119).
Look to volume for further confirmation. Volume expanded on
the
initial jump from 73 to 92 and declined as the consolidation unfolded
over
the last few weeks. This is normal for consolidation patterns and
volume
should expand to confirm a bullish breakout. For starters, volume
should at
least exceed the 60-day SMA. In addition, a move above +10% in
Chaikin Money
Flow could be used for confirmation.
For more of Arthur's intuitive commentary, check out his
website:
TDTrader.com Take your TA to the next level!
----------------------------------------------------------------------
--
Tech Rally Coming to an End? The Rhodes Report
As the technology rally has progressed over the course of the
several weeks - and subsequently has failed - many continue to return
to the
"tried and true" names such as Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle
(ORCL)
and many of the down-trodden communication shares just to name a few.
However, we believe this rally is slowly but surely coming to an end,
and
that the technology sector high for the next several months may have
already
formed. However, if not, then we believe it shall occur in the next
several
days to weeks as we are prone to wide time frames due to markets
moving fart
her and longer than we anticipate.
When one looks at the technicals involving the Nasdaq 100 -
one
finds prices have unsuccessfully tested the longer-term 200-day moving
average - a test which may or may not come again...we simply don't
know. In
fact, our 40-day stochastic is trading at levels that in the past have
marked a cyclical turning point for technology. And given such, we
are prone
to becoming selectively short as our fundamental research indicates
the
harsh realities of 2003 have yet to be taken into account. Thus, we
are
modestly short...and looking to become even more so in the very near
future.
If you want more of Richard's award winning advise, check out
his
website: TheRhodesReport.com - Highly recommended!
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--
New to StockCharts? Useful Links
Here are some links that should help you get started:
a.. John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com
b.. John Murphy's 10 "Laws" of Technical Trading
c.. Chip's Thoughts on Getting Started with Technical
Analysis
d.. All About Charting and Technical Analysis
e.. Back Issues of this Newsletter
f.. Our Mailbag Column is full of great tips and advice.
g.. Bored? Check out our SharpCharts Voyeur page to see
recent
masterpieces that other users created on StockCharts.com
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--
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