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Nicely done John. Options are just so NICE when you get that initial timing
benefit....otherwise, they can be a terrorizor.
my experience has been if you are wrong EARLY IN YOUR POSITION with options,
your chances for recovery are slim-to-none.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, December 08, 2002 3:59 PM
> To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Fwd: Uncovered Puts
>
>
> Go figure. The Mail Daemon kicked back my initial subject heading
> of "Naked" Puts as obscene.
>
>
> Mark,
>
> All of my Dec and Jan Puts seem to be safe,namely;
>
> FNM Strike Price Dec $50
> FRE Strike Price Dec $45
> DUK Strike Price Dec $12.50
> ED Strike Price Dec $35
>
> EXC Strike Price Jan $35
> GE Strike Price Jan $17.50
> S Strike Price Jan $15
> JPM Strike Price Jan $12.50
>
> All are in profit zone and none have come close to needing stop loss
> intervention.
>
> Have averaged $3000 per month in premium.
>
> I am looking at:
> CBSS
> HIB
> DUK
> D
> WYE
> PFE
> CSCO
> SBC
> as prospects for added Jan or Feb despite a potential market
> drop...just will be extra careful with strike prices.
>
> Wind out of my sails was just referring to the up and down value of
> my Mutal Fund portfolio.
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
> December 2002
> Date: 12/08/2002 02:21pm
>
>
> Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002John - Based on your exquisite
> timing with those short puts, even a 5 to 10% decline from this point
> should
> not affect those positions, correct ? Lots of premium should have been
> taken-out by now.
> Are they DEC, JAN, or FEB expirations ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, December 08, 2002 9:50 AM
> To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
> December
> 2002
>
>
> This kind of took some of the wind out of my sails.
> John ------------------ Forward Header --------------------
> Originally From: Chip Anderson
> Subject: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08 December 2002
> Date: 12/07/2002 11:29pm
>
>
>
> Received: from StockCharts.com ([12.144.129.34]) by tom.po.com
> (8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id gB88KbXF017803 for ; Sun, 8 Dec 2002
> 03:20:37 -0500 (EST) Received: from StockCharts.com by
> stockcharts.com with
> SMTP (MDaemon.PRO.v6.0.3.R) for ; Sat, 07 Dec 2002 23:29:11 -0800
>
> Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> published by StockCharts.com
> ChartWatchers | John Murphy | Site News | Decision Point |
> TD
> Trader | Rhodes Report | Subscription Info
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! ChartWatchers
> This week, I thought that I'd show you a couple of long term
> charts
> illustrating how the current market rally is overbought and due for a
> pullback, how the major indices are hitting long-term resistance
> levels and
> why the intermarket picture indicates that you still need to be
> careful
> these days. Then I read John Murphy's latest Market Message update
> and saw
> that he has already said all of that much better than I ever could.
> So, as a
> special treat, I thought we'd share John's entire weekend update with
> all of
> our ChartWatchers. You'll find it below along with columns from our
> "regulars" - Carl Swenlin, Arthur Hill and Richard Rhodes. Enjoy!
> Be sure to read the "Site News" section of this newsletter for
> exciting news about the latest member benefits resulting from our
> merger
> with MurphyMorris.com.
>
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Market Message
> MARKET STILL BELOW RESISTANCE LEVELS... While we utilize daily
> charts for shorter-term timing purposes, weekly and monthly charts
> are much
> better for picturing the market's longer-term trends. The market may
> have
> stopped going down. But it hasn't gone up much either -- certainly not
> enough to reverse the major bear trend. Chart 1 shows that the recent
> rally
> in the S&P 500 has failed to overcome initial chart resistance at the
> August
> high (and the 40- week moving average). Those are the minimum
> requirements
> needed to confirm that a major bottom has been seen. Interestingly,
> the flat
> trendline where the market is meeting new selling coincides pretty
> closely
> with the lows of last September. That's because previous lows -- once
> they're broken on the downside -- become new resistance barriers over
> the
> market. The weekly RSI line has reached potential resistance at 50.
> The good
> news is that the weekly MACD lines are still positive. Chart 2 draws a
> trendline over the highs of the last three years. It hasn't been
> broken yet.
> A decisive upside break of that trendline is also needed to signal
> that the
> big bear has ended.
>
>
> MONTHLY VIEW STILL NEGATIVE... The monthly chart also puts the
> recent bounce into better perspective. The blue down trendline
> matches the
> resistance line shown in Chart 2. The flat red line is the "neckline"
> that
> was broken during July. In order to negate the potential "head and
> shoulders" top, the S&P needs to rise back over the neckline. So far,
> it
> hasn't been able to do it. The monthly stochastics lines have turned
> positive from oversold territory under 20 -- which is encouraging.
> However,
> the monthly MACD lines (which are slower to turn) haven't turned
> positive
> yet. That would also have to happen to signal that the the two-year
> bear
> market has ended.
>
> HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM?... Several of our members has
> asked about
> the possible formation of a "head and shoulders" bottom being formed
> in the
> major averages. According to that view, the "left shoulder" was
> formed by
> the July bottom -- with the "head" forming at the October bottom. The
> S&P
> has stalled at its August high -- and a possible "neckline". So far,
> so
> good. To complete that pattern, the market still needs to pullback
> enough to
> form a "right shoulder". Then, it has to break the August high (and
> the 200-
> day moving average). It's certainly a plausible interpretation -- and
> one
> which we're taking seriously. The On balance volume line has already
> exceeded its August high.
>
> GOLD STOCKS SHINING AGAIN... Gold stocks have been the week's
> strongest group. The daily chart shows the XAU exceeding its November
> high
> and its 200-day moving average. That's a bullish breakout. The weekly
> chart
> shows that the major uptrend in the XAU that started two years ago is
> still
> intact. It shows the recent pullback finding support at the two-year
> support
> line. Some of our members have asked about a "symmetrical triangle"
> that's
> been forming over the past six months (defined by the converging green
> lines). Since the prior trend was up, the triangle is a bullish
> continuation
> pattern. The weekly chart also shows that the six-month falling
> trendline
> has been broken on the upside. That's another bullish sign. Two
> intermarket
> factors helping gold stocks are selling in stocks -- and a falling
> dollar.
> The dollar has been slipping all week -- and fell sharply today. A
> falling
> dollar is usually bullish for gold and gold stocks.
>
>
>
>
> To get John's commentary throughout the week, sign up for John
> Murphy's Market Message by clicking here.
>
>
>
> Recently Joined? Need a Hand?
>
> John Murphy's Getting
> Started with
> StockCharts.com
> 15- minute exercise
> booklet will help you get started.
> Download Now!
>
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> WHAT'S NEW ON THE WEBSITE StockCharts.com
> A New "StockCharts Tutorial" booklet from John Murphy
> If you think that you aren't getting everything you can out
> of your
> StockCharts' membership, stop what you're doing and download our new
> tutorial "John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com" (Adobe
> Acrobat
> required). This 23-page booklet will ensure that you get off on the
> right
> foot with your membership. It takes about 15 minutes to complete -
> possibly
> the most productive 15 minutes you'll ever spend with your computer.
> Simply
> download and print this free booklet and then "Get Started!"
> Unified StockCharts/Murphy Memberships Now Available!
> Using our new unified sign-up page, StockCharts members can
> now add
> John Murphy's commentary to their existing accounts at a big discount.
> Similarly, existing Murphy subscriber can add our "Basic" or "Extra"
> charting service to their existing account and save money. New
> subscribers
> can now join both services in one easy step and existing members can
> renew
> or extend their memberships with much less hassle. The base pricing
> for each
> service hasn't changed, but the benefits of joining have never been
> greater.
> Click here to learn more about joining or upgrading your membership
> today.
> Don't forget: Subscribing in December can maximize your tax benefits!
> "John Murphy" tab allows Murphy subscribers access from within
> StockCharts
> In addition to unifying our membership options, we also took
> a big
> step towards unifying the StockCharts and MurphyMorris websites last
> week
> with the introduction of the "John Murphy" tab on the StockCharts
> website.
> Now anyone who subscribes to John Murphy's Market Message service can
> access
> John's updates via either John's old website, MurphyMorris.com, or by
> clicking on the "John Murphy" tab at the top of any StockCharts.com
> page.
> John's annotated Chart Book, his 1500-stock Market Carpet and his
> audio
> commentary are also available on either site. Just enter your regular
> User
> ID and password into the boxes that appear and you'll gain instant
> access.
> This is just the beginning - you'll start to see more and more of
> John on
> StockCharts.com in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned...
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Investors Intelligence Sentiment DecisionPoint
> A lot of people tell you about this sentiment poll and give
> you
> their interpretation of the weekly results, but it is always best to
> look at
> the chart and make the historical comparisons yourself.
> Note that high bullish readings appear at tops in a bear
> market, and
> in bull markets they mark periods of consolidation or deceleration.
> The
> threshold for major market bottoms is 50% bears. Note that we have
> yet to
> see those levels in spite of a 50% decline in the S&P 500.
> The Bull/Bear Ratio section of the chart fine tunes the
> results and
> alerts us to lopsided readings even though historical thresholds of
> bulls or
> bears haven't been met. The most recent reading is 2.04. As you can
> see, if
> we are in a bull market as some claim, prices will probably flatten
> until
> some of the bullishness fades. If we are still in a bear market,
> which is
> most likely, much lower prices are probably dead ahead.
>
> Charts courtesy of DecisionPoint.com
> -Carl Swenlin
> Don't forget to visit DecisionPoint's "Top Advisors Corner"
> for
> free, periodic updated from some of the best in known names in the
> stock
> market advisor business. Click here for the latest postings.
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Biotechs Extend Consolidation TD Trader
> There are two patterns at work in the Biotech HOLDRS: an
> ascending
> triangle and a rectangle consolidation. Ascending triangles are
> typically
> bullish continuation patterns, but can also form as bullish
> reversals, which
> would be the case with BBH. Consolidation patterns, such as
> rectangles and
> flags, are typically bullish continuation patterns, but can also
> result in a
> reversal.
> Regardless of the pattern, key support and resistance levels
> are
> well defined and future performance is tied to the next break. A move
> above
> 92 would confirm both the ascending triangle and the rectangle as
> bullish.
> Conversely, a move below 84 would break key support and be bearish.
> As an
> ascending triangle breakout, the projected advance would be to around
> 120
> over the next few months (92 - 65 = 27, 92 + 27 = 119).
> Look to volume for further confirmation. Volume expanded on
> the
> initial jump from 73 to 92 and declined as the consolidation unfolded
> over
> the last few weeks. This is normal for consolidation patterns and
> volume
> should expand to confirm a bullish breakout. For starters, volume
> should at
> least exceed the 60-day SMA. In addition, a move above +10% in
> Chaikin Money
> Flow could be used for confirmation.
>
> For more of Arthur's intuitive commentary, check out his
> website:
> TDTrader.com Take your TA to the next level!
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Tech Rally Coming to an End? The Rhodes Report
> As the technology rally has progressed over the course of the
> several weeks - and subsequently has failed - many continue to return
> to the
> "tried and true" names such as Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle
> (ORCL)
> and many of the down-trodden communication shares just to name a few.
> However, we believe this rally is slowly but surely coming to an end,
> and
> that the technology sector high for the next several months may have
> already
> formed. However, if not, then we believe it shall occur in the next
> several
> days to weeks as we are prone to wide time frames due to markets
> moving fart
> her and longer than we anticipate.
> When one looks at the technicals involving the Nasdaq 100 -
> one
> finds prices have unsuccessfully tested the longer-term 200-day moving
> average - a test which may or may not come again...we simply don't
> know. In
> fact, our 40-day stochastic is trading at levels that in the past have
> marked a cyclical turning point for technology. And given such, we
> are prone
> to becoming selectively short as our fundamental research indicates
> the
> harsh realities of 2003 have yet to be taken into account. Thus, we
> are
> modestly short...and looking to become even more so in the very near
> future.
>
> If you want more of Richard's award winning advise, check out
> his
> website: TheRhodesReport.com - Highly recommended!
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> New to StockCharts? Useful Links
> Here are some links that should help you get started:
> a.. John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com
>
>
> b.. John Murphy's 10 "Laws" of Technical Trading
>
>
> c.. Chip's Thoughts on Getting Started with Technical
> Analysis
>
>
> d.. All About Charting and Technical Analysis
>
>
> e.. Back Issues of this Newsletter
>
>
> f.. Our Mailbag Column is full of great tips and advice.
>
>
> g.. Bored? Check out our SharpCharts Voyeur page to see
> recent
> masterpieces that other users created on StockCharts.com
>
>
>
>
>
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------
> --
>
> Noteworthy
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> Questions? Comments? Concerns? Problems? Suggestions?
> Simply 'r'eply
> to this email message and we'll see what we can do.Take care,
>
> Chip
>
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> --
>
> Copyright © 2002 by StockCharts.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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