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LOL ... watch out for that language or I'll have to suspend your posting
privileges! Dad burn it! :))
Bob
At 03:59 PM 12/8/2002 -0500, you wrote:
>Go figure. The Mail Daemon kicked back my initial subject heading
>of "Naked" Puts as obscene.
>
>
>Mark,
>
>All of my Dec and Jan Puts seem to be safe,namely;
>
>FNM Strike Price Dec $50
>FRE Strike Price Dec $45
>DUK Strike Price Dec $12.50
>ED Strike Price Dec $35
>
>EXC Strike Price Jan $35
>GE Strike Price Jan $17.50
>S Strike Price Jan $15
>JPM Strike Price Jan $12.50
>
>All are in profit zone and none have come close to needing stop loss
>intervention.
>
>Have averaged $3000 per month in premium.
>
>I am looking at:
>CBSS
>HIB
>DUK
>D
>WYE
>PFE
>CSCO
>SBC
>as prospects for added Jan or Feb despite a potential market
>drop...just will be extra careful with strike prices.
>
>Wind out of my sails was just referring to the up and down value of
>my Mutal Fund portfolio.
>
>John
>
>
>
>------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
>Originally From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Subject: RE: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
>December 2002
>Date: 12/08/2002 02:21pm
>
>
>Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002John - Based on your exquisite
>timing with those short puts, even a 5 to 10% decline from this point
>should
>not affect those positions, correct ? Lots of premium should have been
>taken-out by now.
>Are they DEC, JAN, or FEB expirations ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, December 08, 2002 9:50 AM
> To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Fwd: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08
>December
>2002
>
>
> This kind of took some of the wind out of my sails.
>John ------------------ Forward Header --------------------
> Originally From: Chip Anderson
> Subject: "Chart Watchers Weekly" (HTML Version) for 08 December 2002
> Date: 12/07/2002 11:29pm
>
>
>
> Received: from StockCharts.com ([12.144.129.34]) by tom.po.com
>(8.12.2/8.12.2) with ESMTP id gB88KbXF017803 for ; Sun, 8 Dec 2002
>03:20:37 -0500 (EST) Received: from StockCharts.com by
>stockcharts.com with
>SMTP (MDaemon.PRO.v6.0.3.R) for ; Sat, 07 Dec 2002 23:29:11 -0800
>
> Chart Watchers Weekly - 08 December 2002
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
> published by StockCharts.com
> ChartWatchers | John Murphy | Site News | Decision Point |
>TD
>Trader | Rhodes Report | Subscription Info
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Hello Fellow ChartWatchers! ChartWatchers
> This week, I thought that I'd show you a couple of long term
>charts
>illustrating how the current market rally is overbought and due for a
>pullback, how the major indices are hitting long-term resistance
>levels and
>why the intermarket picture indicates that you still need to be
>careful
>these days. Then I read John Murphy's latest Market Message update
>and saw
>that he has already said all of that much better than I ever could.
>So, as a
>special treat, I thought we'd share John's entire weekend update with
>all of
>our ChartWatchers. You'll find it below along with columns from our
>"regulars" - Carl Swenlin, Arthur Hill and Richard Rhodes. Enjoy!
> Be sure to read the "Site News" section of this newsletter for
>exciting news about the latest member benefits resulting from our
>merger
>with MurphyMorris.com.
>
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Market Message
> MARKET STILL BELOW RESISTANCE LEVELS... While we utilize daily
>charts for shorter-term timing purposes, weekly and monthly charts
>are much
>better for picturing the market's longer-term trends. The market may
>have
>stopped going down. But it hasn't gone up much either -- certainly not
>enough to reverse the major bear trend. Chart 1 shows that the recent
>rally
>in the S&P 500 has failed to overcome initial chart resistance at the
>August
>high (and the 40- week moving average). Those are the minimum
>requirements
>needed to confirm that a major bottom has been seen. Interestingly,
>the flat
>trendline where the market is meeting new selling coincides pretty
>closely
>with the lows of last September. That's because previous lows -- once
>they're broken on the downside -- become new resistance barriers over
>the
>market. The weekly RSI line has reached potential resistance at 50.
>The good
>news is that the weekly MACD lines are still positive. Chart 2 draws a
>trendline over the highs of the last three years. It hasn't been
>broken yet.
>A decisive upside break of that trendline is also needed to signal
>that the
>big bear has ended.
>
>
> MONTHLY VIEW STILL NEGATIVE... The monthly chart also puts the
>recent bounce into better perspective. The blue down trendline
>matches the
>resistance line shown in Chart 2. The flat red line is the "neckline"
>that
>was broken during July. In order to negate the potential "head and
>shoulders" top, the S&P needs to rise back over the neckline. So far,
>it
>hasn't been able to do it. The monthly stochastics lines have turned
>positive from oversold territory under 20 -- which is encouraging.
>However,
>the monthly MACD lines (which are slower to turn) haven't turned
>positive
>yet. That would also have to happen to signal that the the two-year
>bear
>market has ended.
>
> HEAD AND SHOULDERS BOTTOM?... Several of our members has
>asked about
>the possible formation of a "head and shoulders" bottom being formed
>in the
>major averages. According to that view, the "left shoulder" was
>formed by
>the July bottom -- with the "head" forming at the October bottom. The
>S&P
>has stalled at its August high -- and a possible "neckline". So far,
>so
>good. To complete that pattern, the market still needs to pullback
>enough to
>form a "right shoulder". Then, it has to break the August high (and
>the 200-
>day moving average). It's certainly a plausible interpretation -- and
>one
>which we're taking seriously. The On balance volume line has already
>exceeded its August high.
>
> GOLD STOCKS SHINING AGAIN... Gold stocks have been the week's
>strongest group. The daily chart shows the XAU exceeding its November
>high
>and its 200-day moving average. That's a bullish breakout. The weekly
>chart
>shows that the major uptrend in the XAU that started two years ago is
>still
>intact. It shows the recent pullback finding support at the two-year
>support
>line. Some of our members have asked about a "symmetrical triangle"
>that's
>been forming over the past six months (defined by the converging green
>lines). Since the prior trend was up, the triangle is a bullish
>continuation
>pattern. The weekly chart also shows that the six-month falling
>trendline
>has been broken on the upside. That's another bullish sign. Two
>intermarket
>factors helping gold stocks are selling in stocks -- and a falling
>dollar.
>The dollar has been slipping all week -- and fell sharply today. A
>falling
>dollar is usually bullish for gold and gold stocks.
>
>
>
>
> To get John's commentary throughout the week, sign up for John
>Murphy's Market Message by clicking here.
>
>
>
> Recently Joined? Need a Hand?
>
> John Murphy's Getting
> Started with
> StockCharts.com
> 15- minute exercise
> booklet will help you get started.
> Download Now!
>
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> WHAT'S NEW ON THE WEBSITE StockCharts.com
> A New "StockCharts Tutorial" booklet from John Murphy
> If you think that you aren't getting everything you can out
>of your
>StockCharts' membership, stop what you're doing and download our new
>tutorial "John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com" (Adobe
>Acrobat
>required). This 23-page booklet will ensure that you get off on the
>right
>foot with your membership. It takes about 15 minutes to complete -
>possibly
>the most productive 15 minutes you'll ever spend with your computer.
>Simply
>download and print this free booklet and then "Get Started!"
> Unified StockCharts/Murphy Memberships Now Available!
> Using our new unified sign-up page, StockCharts members can
>now add
>John Murphy's commentary to their existing accounts at a big discount.
>Similarly, existing Murphy subscriber can add our "Basic" or "Extra"
>charting service to their existing account and save money. New
>subscribers
>can now join both services in one easy step and existing members can
>renew
>or extend their memberships with much less hassle. The base pricing
>for each
>service hasn't changed, but the benefits of joining have never been
>greater.
>Click here to learn more about joining or upgrading your membership
>today.
>Don't forget: Subscribing in December can maximize your tax benefits!
> "John Murphy" tab allows Murphy subscribers access from within
>StockCharts
> In addition to unifying our membership options, we also took
>a big
>step towards unifying the StockCharts and MurphyMorris websites last
>week
>with the introduction of the "John Murphy" tab on the StockCharts
>website.
>Now anyone who subscribes to John Murphy's Market Message service can
>access
>John's updates via either John's old website, MurphyMorris.com, or by
>clicking on the "John Murphy" tab at the top of any StockCharts.com
>page.
>John's annotated Chart Book, his 1500-stock Market Carpet and his
>audio
>commentary are also available on either site. Just enter your regular
>User
>ID and password into the boxes that appear and you'll gain instant
>access.
>This is just the beginning - you'll start to see more and more of
>John on
>StockCharts.com in the coming weeks and months. Stay tuned...
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Investors Intelligence Sentiment DecisionPoint
> A lot of people tell you about this sentiment poll and give
>you
>their interpretation of the weekly results, but it is always best to
>look at
>the chart and make the historical comparisons yourself.
> Note that high bullish readings appear at tops in a bear
>market, and
>in bull markets they mark periods of consolidation or deceleration.
>The
>threshold for major market bottoms is 50% bears. Note that we have
>yet to
>see those levels in spite of a 50% decline in the S&P 500.
> The Bull/Bear Ratio section of the chart fine tunes the
>results and
>alerts us to lopsided readings even though historical thresholds of
>bulls or
>bears haven't been met. The most recent reading is 2.04. As you can
>see, if
>we are in a bull market as some claim, prices will probably flatten
>until
>some of the bullishness fades. If we are still in a bear market,
>which is
>most likely, much lower prices are probably dead ahead.
>
> Charts courtesy of DecisionPoint.com
> -Carl Swenlin
> Don't forget to visit DecisionPoint's "Top Advisors Corner"
>for
>free, periodic updated from some of the best in known names in the
>stock
>market advisor business. Click here for the latest postings.
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Biotechs Extend Consolidation TD Trader
> There are two patterns at work in the Biotech HOLDRS: an
>ascending
>triangle and a rectangle consolidation. Ascending triangles are
>typically
>bullish continuation patterns, but can also form as bullish
>reversals, which
>would be the case with BBH. Consolidation patterns, such as
>rectangles and
>flags, are typically bullish continuation patterns, but can also
>result in a
>reversal.
> Regardless of the pattern, key support and resistance levels
>are
>well defined and future performance is tied to the next break. A move
>above
>92 would confirm both the ascending triangle and the rectangle as
>bullish.
>Conversely, a move below 84 would break key support and be bearish.
>As an
>ascending triangle breakout, the projected advance would be to around
>120
>over the next few months (92 - 65 = 27, 92 + 27 = 119).
> Look to volume for further confirmation. Volume expanded on
>the
>initial jump from 73 to 92 and declined as the consolidation unfolded
>over
>the last few weeks. This is normal for consolidation patterns and
>volume
>should expand to confirm a bullish breakout. For starters, volume
>should at
>least exceed the 60-day SMA. In addition, a move above +10% in
>Chaikin Money
>Flow could be used for confirmation.
>
> For more of Arthur's intuitive commentary, check out his
>website:
>TDTrader.com Take your TA to the next level!
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Tech Rally Coming to an End? The Rhodes Report
> As the technology rally has progressed over the course of the
>several weeks - and subsequently has failed - many continue to return
>to the
>"tried and true" names such as Intel (INTC), Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle
>(ORCL)
>and many of the down-trodden communication shares just to name a few.
>However, we believe this rally is slowly but surely coming to an end,
>and
>that the technology sector high for the next several months may have
>already
>formed. However, if not, then we believe it shall occur in the next
>several
>days to weeks as we are prone to wide time frames due to markets
>moving fart
>her and longer than we anticipate.
> When one looks at the technicals involving the Nasdaq 100 -
>one
>finds prices have unsuccessfully tested the longer-term 200-day moving
>average - a test which may or may not come again...we simply don't
>know. In
>fact, our 40-day stochastic is trading at levels that in the past have
>marked a cyclical turning point for technology. And given such, we
>are prone
>to becoming selectively short as our fundamental research indicates
>the
>harsh realities of 2003 have yet to be taken into account. Thus, we
>are
>modestly short...and looking to become even more so in the very near
>future.
>
> If you want more of Richard's award winning advise, check out
>his
>website: TheRhodesReport.com - Highly recommended!
>
>
>
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> New to StockCharts? Useful Links
> Here are some links that should help you get started:
> a.. John Murphy's Getting Started with StockCharts.com
>
>
> b.. John Murphy's 10 "Laws" of Technical Trading
>
>
> c.. Chip's Thoughts on Getting Started with Technical
>Analysis
>
>
> d.. All About Charting and Technical Analysis
>
>
> e.. Back Issues of this Newsletter
>
>
> f.. Our Mailbag Column is full of great tips and advice.
>
>
> g.. Bored? Check out our SharpCharts Voyeur page to see
>recent
>masterpieces that other users created on StockCharts.com
>
>
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Noteworthy
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> Questions? Comments? Concerns? Problems? Suggestions?
>Simply 'r'eply
>to this email message and we'll see what we can do.Take care,
>
> Chip
>
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>----------------------------------------------------------------------
>--
>
> Copyright © 2002 by StockCharts.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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