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How far up is min 3.55% and max up
is 5.1%
(sp500 cash)
Ben
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Hill,
Ernie
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, September 23, 2002 10:12
PM
Subject: [RT] Re: Market Update
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">Today's Earnings warnings
were enough to push the market down to my 825-826 target range. Today's
intra-day low of 825.74 is the anticipated low turn. However, the move up may
be very short lived. We have two possible scenarios.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">To understand where we go
from here we need a little review of how we got to where we are. It is my
opinion that we are in the midst of a large <FONT
face="Courier New" size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">3-3-3<FONT
face="Courier New" size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'"> A-B-C correction that
began from the 7-24 low. From that low the market made a three wave move
labeled on the attached chart by the first lower cased a-b-c set. This move
terminated at the 8-22 high which completed the large "A"
wave.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">We then began a three wave
decline marked by the next a-b-c set. That may have terminated today at
825.74, which I have temporarily labeled as the "B" wave.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">Generally a fully
developed C wave will be of equal length as that of the A wave, or it will be
1.618 times the length of the A wave. The move down from 8-22 to 9-5 is
labeled as a minor "a" wave, with the move from 9-5 up to 9-11 being a minor
"b" wave. The current minor "c" wave began from the 9-11 high. The downside
target for an equal length "c" wave would be 829.69. Today's price action
satisfies that target.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">The question that remains
is this the termination point for the minor "c" wave or will it extend down to
the 1.618 level which would be 771.42. If it did then the major "B" wave would
then be approximately the same length as the major "A" wave and set-up the
classic double bottom.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">Looking closer at the
price action from the 9-11 high we can clearly see three waves down, which
could be a further subdivision of this minor "c" wave into another smaller
a-b-c, or it could be sub-dividing into a five wave move down before the minor
"c" wave and major "B" waves both terminate together.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">In either case we should
see at least a one to three day bounce up from here. We will then have to let
the market tell us if it is going to continue moving higher beginning a major
"C" wave, which would take us back up to at least the 912 area, or if it is
going to continue moving down in a five wave move terminating near
771.42.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: 'Courier New'">
<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">From:
"Hill, Ernie" <<A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/realtraders/post?protectID=070212234009056091170056001064114239248237196214183130252055210";>ernie.hill@xxxx>
Date:
Thu Sep 19, 2002 9:01 pm<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject: Forecast for tomorrow
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">We are very near a short term low.
If today's low does not hold up then
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> 836.50 should limit the
downside tomorrow in the cash S&P. I would expect an
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> intra-day reversal from that
level. If this level should fail by more than a
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> few points then 825-826
would be the next down side target.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A
href="http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts";>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/snpforecasts
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
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